Altseason is Being Forgotten – And That Could Be a Bullish Signal

Currently, almost no one is talking about “altseason” anymore. But in the crypto market, the silence of the crowd can sometimes be the most positive signal. According to data from the on-chain analysis platform Santiment, the number of social media posts mentioning “altseason” has dropped to the lowest level in at least two years. This term is often seen as an indicator of retail investors’ speculative sentiment. When everyone is talking about altseason everywhere, the market is usually near its peak. Conversely, when no one mentions it anymore, it’s often the time when “whales” quietly accumulate.

Over the past two years, each time discussions about altseason surged, it coincided with local peaks of Dogecoin. On the other hand, quiet market periods are often followed by price recoveries. Although this correlation isn’t perfect, it has repeated enough cycles to attract analysts’ attention. The current market apathy is not without reason. Since the sharp crash in October, most altcoins have experienced significant declines. Dogecoin has dropped about 75% from its cycle peak. Solana lost over 60% of its value. Cardano decreased by more than 70%. For several consecutive months, capital flow in the crypto market has mainly returned to Bitcoin or stablecoins, rather than flowing into smaller-cap altcoins. This has caused many investors to lose patience and almost give up hope for an altcoin season. Other sentiment indicators also show market exhaustion. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index in February and March continuously fluctuated between “Fear” and “Extreme Fear,” reflecting investors’ pessimistic psychology. Meanwhile, data from Coinbase shows that the Coinbase Premium Index remained negative for more than 40 days in February, indicating that retail investors in the US are almost not participating in the market, even with Bitcoin, let alone altcoins. Google Trends also shows a similar trend: searches like “best crypto to buy” have remained flat, while the phrase “bitcoin to zero” hit record highs in the US at the beginning of the month. However, behind this pessimistic sentiment, on-chain data tells a different story. The number of wallets holding 100 BTC or more approached 20,000 by the end of February, indicating that large investors are taking advantage of the dip to accumulate more Bitcoin. This does not mean an immediate surge in altcoin prices. The market is still influenced by many macro factors, including geopolitical tensions and volatility in global financial markets. Before altcoins can explode, the most important condition is Bitcoin’s stability. Only when capital flows return and risk appetite increases can the market begin a cycle of capital shifting from BTC to altcoins. In other words: altseason may not be here yet, but the current market psychology is gradually laying the foundation for it.