#加密市场小幅下跌 跌破68000美元！Bitcoin Sell-Off Eases, Bear Market Enters Mid-Stage, But Bottom Still Unconfirmed

On March 7th, after experiencing a period of volatility and correction, Bitcoin's price stabilized temporarily, and market sentiment gradually shifted from extreme panic to rationality. At this moment, CryptoQuant analyst Axel posted on X platform, offering a key judgment — Bitcoin's selling pressure has significantly weakened, but the overall bottom has not yet been confirmed, and it is highly likely that we have entered the mid-stage of this bear cycle. This judgment instantly sparked heated discussion: does the easing of sell-off mean it’s time to buy the dip? What exactly is the state of the mid-bear market? Is this a phase support or a temporary rebound?

Core Interpretation: Key Signals in the Analyst’s Statement
Axel’s assessment is primarily based on a key indicator — the NUPL–MVRV harmonic composite index. Currently, this indicator is at 0.33, while historical data shows that Bitcoin cycle bottoms usually occur around 0.5. These two numbers may seem abstract, but once broken down, they are quite understandable: simply put, the NUPL–MVRV harmonic composite index measures market panic, selling pressure, and bottom zones. The lower the value, the more severe the panic and closer to the bottom; the higher the value, the more euphoric the market sentiment and closer to the top. The current indicator at 0.33 is well above the historical bottom range of 0.5, indicating that the market has not yet reached an extreme “full sell-off” stage, and the bottom has not been fully confirmed. However, it is worth noting that the chart shows the start of an upward trend in the bear cycle, which also confirms the judgment of “weakened sell-off pressure” — the previous extreme sell-off has become milder, and the market is no longer dominated by panic-driven sell-offs. The bulls and bears are beginning to balance, which is a core basis for the “mid-bear market” phase.
Simple Summary: The current Bitcoin market is like a temporary calm after a storm — the most intense sell-offs are over, but the skies are not yet clear, and there may still be showers, so caution is advised.

What Is the Current Market Situation?
On one hand, selling pressure is indeed easing. From recent market performance, Bitcoin previously dipped near $63,000, then gradually rebounded to around $67,984.94, without a sustained breakdown; at the same time, spot trading volume has increased, buy and sell orders are becoming more balanced, indicating that the number of investors blindly selling is decreasing, and the market is entering a consolidation phase. Additionally, recent inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs and institutional capital deployment have provided some price support, further easing selling pressure.
On the other hand, signals of an unconfirmed bottom are also very clear. Besides the NUPL–MVRV indicator not reaching the historical bottom zone, there are multiple uncertainties in the current market: global macroeconomic fluctuations, geopolitical tensions, and ongoing institutional hedging needs, all of which could trigger new volatility; meanwhile, options market data shows that market expectations for a sharp short-term rebound are low, and there is higher vigilance for further corrections, indicating that market confidence has not fully recovered. More critically, the core characteristic of this bear market is the paradox of “institutions bearish but increasing holdings” — some institutions, despite judging the market to be in a bear phase, are still gradually increasing their positions. This prevents the market from experiencing the previous “capitulation sell-off,” but also makes a quick reversal difficult, leading to a gradual digestion of pressure within the consolidation, which is typical of the mid-bear market.