Vaguada and frontal system will cause severe weather conditions in more than 20 Mexican states on January 22

The National Water Commission (Conagua) through the National Meteorological Service (SMN) announced that significant weather phenomena will occur in Mexico on Thursday, January 22. The main system involved will be a trough, accompanied by Cold Front No. 30, which will create adverse conditions in more than twenty states across the country. These atmospheric systems will converge to produce a complex scenario of rain, extreme temperatures, and strong winds.

Convergence of systems: The trough and Cold Front No. 30

The weather event this Thursday will result from the interaction of two main systems. The trough, a depression in the atmosphere, will combine with the influx of moist air facilitated by an atmospheric river. This convergence will intensify precipitation especially in the western, central, and southern regions of the country. The National Meteorological Service emphasized that both the trough and Cold Front No. 30 will act simultaneously, amplifying the expected weather effects.

Precipitation and showers: Regional impact

According to official forecasts, heavy rain showers are expected in Campeche and Quintana Roo, while scattered showers will affect Baja California, Sonora, Chihuahua, Guerrero, Oaxaca, Veracruz (Olmeca region), Chiapas, Tabasco, and Yucatán. The trough will enhance these disturbances’ capacity to generate precipitation. Additionally, scattered rains are forecasted in Coahuila, Nuevo León, Tamaulipas, San Luis Potosí, Hidalgo, Puebla, State of Mexico, Mexico City, Morelos, and Michoacán.

Extreme cold in mountainous areas

Northern and central states will experience significant temperature drops during the early hours of the day. Temperatures of 0 to -5 °C are expected in the mountainous areas of Baja California, Sonora, Coahuila, Nuevo León, San Luis Potosí, Zacatecas, State of Mexico, Hidalgo, Tlaxcala, Puebla, Veracruz, and Oaxaca. Meanwhile, cold temperatures of 0 to 5 °C will be recorded during the early morning in high-altitude areas of Aguascalientes, Jalisco, Guanajuato, Michoacán, Querétaro, Mexico City, and Morelos. The combination of the trough and the front will push these polar air masses toward lower latitudes.

Heatwave in the south and west

Simultaneously, in lower elevation areas farther from the direct influence of the frontal system, extremely high temperatures will be recorded. Jalisco, Colima, Michoacán, Guerrero, Oaxaca, Chiapas, Morelos, and Puebla will experience heat of 35 to 40 °C. Additionally, warm conditions of 30 to 35 °C are forecasted in Sinaloa, Nayarit, Campeche, Yucatán, and Quintana Roo. This thermal contrast illustrates how the trough creates marked divisions in the country’s climate behavior.

Strong winds driven by the frontal system

Wind speeds will increase significantly in northern regions due to pressure gradients caused by the cold front. Gusts of up to 60 kilometers per hour are expected in Sonora, Chihuahua, Durango, Zacatecas, Coahuila, Nuevo León, and Tamaulipas. These windy conditions will amplify the wind chill effect, combining with the predicted low temperatures to create a particularly hostile environment.

Morning fog and low visibility

Morning fog layers are also expected during the early hours, especially over the mountainous areas of the Northern Plateau, Central Plateau, and Mexico Valley. These fog banks will reduce visibility and affect travel conditions in these regions, requiring extra caution from drivers.

Climate context: The role of larger-scale phenomena

The National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM) has documented how global phenomena such as El Niño and La Niña influence the intensity and frequency of events like troughs and frontal systems. Mexico, positioned at a critical latitude, is particularly vulnerable to these disturbances, which can significantly alter the climate pattern over extended periods. The event on January 22 will exemplify how regional atmospheric mechanisms interact within the broader context of global climate variability.