HTX DeepThink: Middle East tensions trigger huge swings in oil prices; whether the energy shock continues will determine Bitcoin's trend

Deep Tide TechFlow News, March 10th, HTX DeepThink columnist and HTX Research analyst Chloe (@ChloeTalk1) pointed out that as the Middle East conflict enters its tenth day, U.S. President Trump has signaled that “the war could end soon,” leading to a clear reversal in market sentiment. During the Asian trading session, WTI crude oil surged to $119 per barrel due to concerns over potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and energy supply risks; however, after Trump hinted that the conflict might be nearing its end, oil prices quickly retreated to around $80, with a daily volatility of over 40%. Meanwhile, U.S. stocks recovered their losses, and Treasury yields declined, indicating that the market is beginning to reprice geopolitical risks.

For the crypto market, such geopolitical conflicts typically influence energy prices, inflation expectations, and liquidity conditions. If oil prices continue to soar, global inflation expectations could be reignited, pushing up real interest rates and constraining the Federal Reserve’s policy space. In this context, Bitcoin usually struggles to sustain a rally because high real interest rates suppress risk asset valuations and encourage capital to flow back into dollar-denominated assets. Therefore, during sharp oil price increases, crypto markets tend to exhibit short-term safe-haven volatility rather than sustained upward trends.

However, based on current market reactions, the U.S. government appears more inclined to stabilize the energy market quickly. Besides signaling a potential de-escalation of the conflict, the U.S. is also considering measures such as increasing Venezuela’s oil supply and moderately relaxing some Russian oil sanctions to ease global energy pressures. If these measures are implemented, the persistence of oil price increases may be limited, and global inflation expectations could also subside. For the crypto market, this means that real interest rates may not rise further, alleviating some downward pressure on Bitcoin valuations.

But the risks have not truly disappeared. As one of the world’s most critical energy transit routes, the Strait of Hormuz remains highly uncertain. If shipping safety cannot be restored promptly, energy supply shocks could push oil prices higher again and trigger new volatility in global financial markets. Additionally, the ongoing geopolitical contest between the U.S. and Russia over energy and strategic interests could continue to influence future supply dynamics.

Overall, the impact of this conflict on the crypto market will ultimately hinge on two key macro variables: energy prices and liquidity expectations. If the situation quickly de-escalates and oil prices fall back, market focus will shift back to Fed policy and economic data, and Bitcoin is likely to continue operating as a high-beta liquidity asset. However, if energy shocks persist and drive inflation and interest rates higher, short-term crypto volatility could be significantly amplified.

Note: This article does not constitute investment advice and is not an offer, solicitation, or recommendation for any investment products.