Miners may never get to wait for the next bull market again

Summary: Bitpush News

As the demand for artificial intelligence (AI) and high-performance computing (HPC) power rapidly grows, more publicly listed Bitcoin mining companies are exploring shifting data centers, electricity, and infrastructure toward AI computing. This trend has also raised a question in the market: Is AI changing or even reshaping the future of the Bitcoin mining industry?

In an interview aired on the Blockspace Podcast on March 10, Liang Wang, Vice President of the leading global Bitcoin mining hardware manufacturer Canaan, shared his observations on this issue. He believes that Bitcoin as an asset still likely to experience new bull markets, but this does not necessarily mean the Bitcoin mining industry itself will enjoy the same prosperity as in the past. The more important reason is not AI or HPC, but that the economics of mining are gradually worsening over time.

Below is a summary compiled by the Bitpush team based on the interview, with slight edits for clarity and readability.

“Bitcoin will have bull markets, but I really don’t know if the mining industry will.”

Host:

Many listed mining companies are now shifting their computing power resources toward AI. How do you view this change? Will AI change or even replace the Bitcoin mining industry?

Liang Wang:

I’ve been thinking about this question a lot. First, I think we must embrace AI and AI HPC because it’s a huge change. It will alter our way of life and change many job structures—many jobs will be replaced by AI, and that’s very clear.

But if the question is whether AI will replace the entire Bitcoin mining industry, I personally don’t think so. Bitcoin as an asset class still holds value, and it has its own cycles. So if you ask me whether Bitcoin will have another bull market in the future, I believe the answer is yes.

However, if you ask whether the Bitcoin mining industry itself will have a bull market, honestly, I don’t know the answer.

Because what’s currently diverting attention from this industry isn’t just AI HPC. The more significant reason is that the economics of mining are gradually deteriorating over time.

“Entering the mining industry now is much more difficult than five years ago.”

Host:

Why do you think the economics of mining are worsening?

Liang Wang:

Because today’s industry is completely different from five years ago. Five years ago, if you could get a mining machine, you were likely to make a lot of money. Many people in the industry back then saw mining machines as a “money printer.” But that’s no longer the case. Now, entering this industry has become very challenging.

Look at the current Bitcoin price—around $65,000 to $70,000—but the total network hash rate hasn’t dropped significantly, right? That alone indicates a problem. Logically, if the industry was truly that profitable, or conversely, if it was fully replaced by AI, we should see more obvious changes in hash rate. But the reality is different. People still keep their machines running.

Why? First, because they need income. Even if they’re no longer profitable, companies still need revenue to keep operating and to keep employees working. Second, Bitcoin mining now plays an increasingly important role as a grid stabilizer. HPC runs 24/7 continuously, and you can’t easily turn it off. Bitcoin miners, with their flexible start-stop capability, help absorb grid peaks and valleys, aiding overall power system expansion. So many companies, even with thin or no profit, won’t easily shut down their hash rate.

That’s why I say the issue isn’t just AI taking the spotlight from mining. The real challenge is that it’s becoming harder for new miners to make money in this industry.

“After 2028, monetary rewards may no longer be the key driver of this industry.”

Host:

What do you think the industry will look like in the next two or three years, or even after 2028?

Liang Wang:

Bitcoin has a well-known but often misunderstood mechanism—halving every four years. Halving means that if Bitcoin’s price doesn’t double, the economic rewards from block subsidies will decline.

Everyone knows there will be another halving in 2028. The question is: if Bitcoin’s price doesn’t reach $300,000 or doesn’t rise enough to support miners’ earnings, what will drive this industry forward? That’s what I’ve been pondering.

My view is that Bitcoin mining will continue to exist and remain part of the energy landscape, but I don’t think monetary rewards will be the main driving force after 2028. It’s more likely that the industry will persist around several directions—such as grid balancing, waste heat recovery, household applications, or utilizing resources that traditional energy systems can’t efficiently use. But if you ask me whether there will be another boom cycle where everyone rushes in and miners make huge profits, I really can’t say.

Of course, I hope I’m wrong. I hope Bitcoin hits $500,000 per coin, and everyone rushes back into the industry. But that’s unpredictable—I don’t have a crystal ball.

AI and mining are not zero-sum.

Host:

A popular view in the market is that AI will directly compete for Bitcoin mining’s electricity resources. Do you agree?

Liang Wang:

I don’t see this as a zero-sum game. Because AI HPC and Bitcoin mining are fundamentally different loads. AI HPC must run continuously, 24/7, often cannot be turned off easily. Bitcoin miners, on the other hand, have the advantage of being flexible—they can be shut down when needed and quickly restarted when there’s excess power.

That’s why I’ve always believed that in places like Texas, Bitcoin miners are welcomed by grid operators and energy providers. They help absorb grid imbalances—they can give up power when needed and take in excess electricity. Batteries are also a solution, but from a cost perspective, they are much more expensive than Bitcoin mining. So I remain optimistic about the role of Bitcoin miners in energy systems. Not only have they not been replaced by AI, but they might become even more important in the AI era, in a different way.

In my view, AI and Bitcoin mining can often coexist and even complement each other, rather than one necessarily displacing the other.

North America remains one of the few markets with long-term predictability.

Host:

From a regional perspective, where do you think the most potential for mining growth lies in the future?

Liang Wang:

We’ve explored many regions and tried many approaches. For example, we have experience in Kazakhstan. But the problem is, many countries initially welcome miners because they help utilize idle electricity. However, once local electricity becomes tight or political situations change, mining can quickly go from being “welcomed” to “targeted.”

That’s why we prefer North America, especially the US and Canada. Not that there are no issues here, but overall, the predictability is better. Doing business in the US, at least, you know the rules, understand the differences between states, and if you bring employment, taxes, or help the grid, local authorities are more likely to understand and support you. In many other countries, uncertainty is too high—sometimes a single policy change or attitude shift by a local authority can wipe out your entire operation.

For a publicly listed company, this long-term predictability is crucial. You can’t gamble shareholders’ money on a market that might not be operational in ten years.

“China’s situation is very complicated.”

Host:

There’s ongoing concern about China’s mining industry. What’s your view on the current state of surplus mining farms in China?

Liang Wang:

China’s situation has always been complex, and I don’t think it’s a simple, top-down, centrally coordinated process. China is vast, with different regions and levels of consideration. At the national level, the focus is on financial stability—especially preventing capital outflows through mining or Bitcoin trading. That’s been a key background. Since 2021, Bitcoin mining and crypto trading have been officially banned in China, and that hasn’t changed.

But on the local level, realities differ. For some regions, Bitcoin mining has been helpful—it creates jobs, generates taxes, and consumes otherwise unused electricity. Especially during economic downturns, many see miners as a way to monetize electricity infrastructure. That’s why some activities still exist today—they meet market demand.

However, I want to emphasize that we’ve never viewed this as China re-accepting Bitcoin mining. We don’t see it that way. We also don’t think it’s wise to base long-term capital deployment on the hope that China will resume self-operated mining. As a listed company, you can’t gamble on policy stability. That’s why we focus on North America rather than betting on some new Chinese crypto strategy.

AI is not stealing capacity from miners?

Host:

Another concern is that with the surge in AI chip demand, will mining hardware manufacturers find it harder to secure chip supply?

Liang Wang:

I don’t think capacity will be completely taken over by AI. In the short term, chip supply will be tight at times, but over five to ten years, supply and demand should balance out.

Companies like TSMC and Samsung are making long-term investments worth billions or even hundreds of billions of dollars. They look at the next decade, not just the next year or two. Mining chips are part of their business, but not the whole picture, nor necessarily the most critical part.

The key is whether you have a long-term partnership with the foundries, whether you have successful tape-out experience, and whether you can produce a competitive process node. Each new generation of process technology involves huge R&D costs and high trial-and-error costs. New entrants without these capabilities will find it very difficult to break in, even with money.

This industry isn’t about “making the most advanced chips”—it’s about whether you can produce chips that people want to buy. I see this more as a long-term technical partnership issue than simply AI stealing capacity from miners.