On the twelfth day of the conflict, global audiences were left bewildered by Trump.

Early Tuesday morning Beijing time, he casually told CBS cameras: this war is almost completely over, America is far ahead of schedule.

Before he finished speaking, the Pentagon's account posted a blunt message: "We've just begun fighting."

A few hours later, Defense Secretary Hegseth followed up at a briefing: today will be the most intense day yet, with the maximum number of fighter jets and bombers about to deploy.

A reporter asked Trump: who's right, you or the Defense Secretary? Trump answered without flinching: "I think both are right."

By evening, he switched to a different script: "We've already achieved victories in many respects, but it's not enough. We will move forward with greater determination than ever before to secure final victory."

Same day, same president, four completely different narratives.

This isn't a head of state's war speech—it's a desperate gambler at the poker table talking incoherently.

The BBC was stunned, saying the president's messaging was dizzying, and those seeking clues about when the war might end got more questions than answers.

But anyone with basic financial knowledge could see through Trump's scheme—he's manipulating markets.

Forbes noticed that after Trump gave an interview saying the war was ending soon, international oil prices crashed dramatically, with Brent crude plummeting from near $120.

US stocks also rebounded, with the three major indices turning red at close after heavy early losses.

But Tuesday evening before US market opening, Trump again signaled through Fox that he might be willing to talk to Iran, sending oil prices into another violent swing.

This isn't commanding a war—this is using presidential rhetoric to trade volatility in stocks and oil prices.

On one hand he needs to reassure voters terrified by oil prices, on the other maintain military pressure on Iran. Trump wishes he could split himself in two, playing both good cop and bad cop.

But the problem is, Iran simply won't cooperate with the script.

Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi laid it down plainly: the precondition for ceasefire is no more aggressive acts, and Iran has the final say on the situation.

Iranian Speaker Ghalibaf was even harsher: we will never seek a ceasefire; we must strike the aggressors so they never dare invade Iran again.

Trump threatened that if Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz, America would strike twenty times harder than before.

Iran's Revolutionary Guards spokesman fired back: you're using lies and deception to apply psychological pressure. The end of war is decided by Iran, not by Trump.

What really infuriated Trump was that the old Khamenei he personally eliminated has now returned in a younger version.

After the new Supreme Leader Mujtaba was sworn in, millions of Iranians took to the streets to show loyalty. Iranian media said the new leader would speak within hours, though delayed for security reasons, the regime machinery still functions.

A CNN commentary laid bare Trump's predicament.

The article says the only direct way to resolve the Strait of Hormuz crisis is US Navy convoy operations—which Trump promised last week to launch soon.

But sources describe the strait's current situation as a "valley of death." Conducting convoy operations means placing naval vessels in danger merely to protect tankers, with no clear strategic advantage to the war itself.

In other words, Trump faces a choice: either watch oil prices skyrocket, voters explode, midterm elections collapse; or send the US Navy into that narrow 33-kilometer-wide waterway, turning warships into sitting ducks for Iranian anti-ship missiles.

What's this called? Being caught between a rock and a hard place.

The Wall Street Journal revealed that over soaring oil prices and fears that prolonged conflict could trigger political backlash, some of Trump's advisors have privately urged him to find an exit plan from the war.

The team recently concluded they need a more aggressive communications plan to convince the public to support the war, as many consumers face rising gas prices.

But the problem is, the initiative to exit the war isn't in Trump's hands.

Iran has already made clear: no hostile forces are allowed to export a single liter of oil from this region.

Any Arab or European country that expels US and Israeli ambassadors can freely pass through the Strait of Hormuz the next day. This is clearly putting Gulf states in a bind—you can't both ally with America and get oil transit permits from Iran.

By day twelve of the war, Trump's victory narrative has been shattered.

He wanted to quickly decapitate Iran's leadership and collapse the regime, instead he created a nation united through martyrdom. He wanted to control the Strait of Hormuz and seize the global energy lifeline, instead he drove oil to $120 and it backfired. He wanted to display American hegemonic thunder, instead he backed himself into a corner where either the economy collapses or the Navy does.

More ironically, the old Khamenei he personally eliminated is now Iran's spiritual totem, an Islamic martyr saint.

Trump's strike didn't eliminate Iran's resistance—it sent all of Iran's surrender faction into the dustbin of history.

So when Trump posted another threatening tweet Tuesday evening, the White House press secretary could only do damage control: the president will decide when Iran is in a position of unconditional surrender. This doesn't mean Iran's regime will come declare surrender itself, but when the president deems it no longer a threat, it is in a state of surrender.

Translated plainly: I declare you surrendered, so you're surrendered, even if you're still fighting.

This delusional logic exposes Trump's deepest anxiety—he can't decisively defeat Iran on the battlefield, so he can only proclaim victory through rhetoric.

And that new leader hiding in the rubble, that Iran still shooting missiles every day, is telling him with the most stubborn attitude:

You keep talking, I keep fighting. Let's see who gives up first #Gate广场AI测评官 $BTC