BTC Market Pulse: Week 12

Overview

Spot market signals are mixed but constructive. Spot CVD flipped decisively positive, reflecting a return of aggressive buying pressure, though overall spot volume declined toward its lower statistical band, suggesting broader participation remains subdued.

Derivatives markets reflect rising but cautious engagement. Futures OI edged higher as futures CVD surged, while funding payments moved further negative, pointing to persistent short positioning. In options, the volatility spread narrowed sharply as IV realigned with realised conditions, and 25-delta skew rose modestly, signalling continued demand for downside hedging.

ETF activity strengthened notably, with net inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs accelerating meaningfully, indicating renewed institutional demand, even as total ETF trading volume cooled slightly from prior elevated levels.

On-chain activity remains relatively muted. Active addresses declined below their lower band and transfer volumes, while improving modestly, remain subdued. Fee volume remains stable, reflecting steady but quiet network usage.

Capital flow dynamics and investor positioning are gradually improving. Realized cap change remains negative but has moved closer to neutral, suggesting easing outflows. Meanwhile, profitability metrics such as supply in profit, NUPL, and the realized profit-to-loss ratio all improved modestly, pointing to a reduction in market stress.

Overall, market conditions are showing signs of stabilization and gradual recovery. Momentum and spot buying pressure have strengthened, ETF inflows remain supportive, and investor profitability is improving modestly. However, subdued on-chain activity and cautious derivatives positioning suggest broader conviction has yet to fully return.

Off-Chain Indicators

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Disclaimer: This report does not provide any investment advice. All data is provided for information and educational purposes only. No investment decision shall be based on the information provided here and you are solely responsible for your own investment decisions.

Exchange balances presented are derived from Glassnode’s comprehensive database of address labels, which are amassed through both officially published exchange information and proprietary clustering algorithms. While we strive to ensure the utmost accuracy in representing exchange balances, it is important to note that these figures might not always encapsulate the entirety of an exchange’s reserves, particularly when exchanges refrain from disclosing their official addresses. We urge users to exercise caution and discretion when utilizing these metrics. Glassnode shall not be held responsible for any discrepancies or potential inaccuracies

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