Hawkish Signals Are Tightening | Rewire News Morning Brief

Hawkish signals tighten | Rewire News Morning Brief

By BlockBeats

Source:

Reprinted from Mars Finance

The Federal Reserve dot plot shows a split 7:7, with Powell saying inflation progress is below expectations, while refusing to leave before the investigation concludes. Rates remain unchanged, but hawkish signals are tightening.

1 | The Fed dot plot splits, Powell’s last two press conferences turn into political survival battles

The Fed held rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% on Wednesday, as expected. What exceeded expectations was the dot plot: 7 out of 19 members believe rates should not be cut in 2026, one more than in December; another 7 expect only one cut. Inflation forecasts were revised up from 2.5% to 2.7%. Powell’s language was colder than the market wanted: “We expect inflation to make progress, but not as much as we hope.” The stock market fell to intraday lows.

At the same press conference, Powell announced he would not leave before his term ends. U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro is investigating the Fed headquarters renovation project, and Trump’s nominee for successor Kevin Warsh has been sidelined by Senator Tillis in the Banking Committee. Powell’s term ends on May 15, but he said, “I have no intention of leaving before the investigation is thoroughly concluded.” On the surface, it’s a rate decision; underneath, the Fed chair’s future is being held hostage by a renovation probe and a senator’s veto power.

(Source: CNBC / Bloomberg / American Banker)

2 | Nvidia GTC completes empire-building in four days, Groq acquisition becomes a reasoning weapon

On day four of GTC, Nvidia turned the $20 billion acquisition of Groq in December 2025 into a product. The Groq 3 LPX platform, composed of 128 LPU cores, combined with Vera Rubin NVL72 deployment, claims a 35-fold increase in throughput per megawatt. The Vera CPU, released the same day, is the first processor designed specifically for Agentic AI, doubling the efficiency of traditional rack-level CPUs.

On Monday, they discussed the seven-chip platform; Tuesday, the inference grid (AI Grid); Wednesday, the open-source Nemotron Coalition; Thursday, Groq inference and space data centers (Space-1). Over four days, Huang Renxun has built not just a product line but an empire of computing power spanning from ground to orbit, from training to inference. The next-generation Feynman architecture has also been announced, including Rosa CPU, LP40 LPU, BlueField-5, and Kyber network.

(Source: NVIDIA Newsroom / Yahoo Finance / NVIDIA Blog)

3 | 150 retired judges jointly support Anthropic, Pentagon responds with “hostility”

Last night, reports covered DOJ’s 40-page document and data showing Anthropic surpassing OpenAI in market share. Today’s development is a collective legal industry response. Nearly 150 retired federal and state judges submitted amicus briefs questioning the legality of the Pentagon’s use of the “supply chain risk” label on Anthropic. Along with four major tech industry associations, Microsoft, and employees of competing companies, the support for Anthropic has expanded from industry to judiciary.

The government’s counterattack is escalating. Deputy Secretary of Defense Emil Michael described Anthropic as “hostile” in negotiations, claiming its stance is “not fact-based but aimed at managing public image.” Anthropic’s CFO stated in legal documents that revenue losses could reach “hundreds of millions of dollars” in 2026. The March 24 hearing is defining a new legal boundary: can AI companies impose conditions on government clients’ use?

(Source: CNN / Axios)

4 | Day 20 of Iran war, oil prices breathe but $200 warning still in the air

WTI fell to $95.50 on Monday, down 5.3%, triggered by Trump discussing escort plans for the Strait of Hormuz. But analysts’ warnings remain. According to CNBC, traders believe $200 is not out of the question. Capital Economics warns that if the conflict lasts three months, Brent could average $150.

The physical scope of the conflict continues to expand. Azerbaijan deployed troops to the Iranian border citing potential internal security collapse. Qatar suspended LNG production on March 2 due to drone attacks (supplying 20% of global LNG). Eleven countries involved in major conflicts control 51% of global oil capacity and 56% of natural gas capacity. The brief dip in oil prices is more of a pause than a turning point.

(Source: CNBC / EIA / Capital Economics / Al Jazeera)

5 | Cloud giants’ GPU arms race adds another zero

AWS announced over 1 million Nvidia GPUs deployed across global regions at GTC. On the same day, Microsoft Azure showcased liquid-cooled Grace Blackwell GPU deployment plans; Nemotron models integrated into Foundry; Oracle connected GPU-accelerated vector search via cuVS library.

Within the same week, the three cloud giants have intensified their moves, shifting focus from “whose model is better” to “who controls more inference computing power.” Nvidia remains a common supplier, but their deployment architectures, cooling solutions, and model access paths are diverging. The scale of computing infrastructure is no longer a distant goal; 1 million GPUs is a tangible number already being realized.

(Source: NVIDIA Blog / AWS / Microsoft Azure)

Also worth knowing ↓

PPI for February rose 0.7% month-over-month, more than double economists’ expectations. Producer inflation is transmitted from energy and tariffs simultaneously, giving context to Powell’s “inflation below expectations.” (Source: Yahoo Finance)

The Clarity Act is expected to be released by the committee in April. Senator Lummis says disagreements have narrowed to details. The most comprehensive U.S. crypto regulation bill is still in queue, with unresolved disputes over stablecoin yield provisions. The DC Blockchain Summit and New York Digital Asset Summit are lobbying this week. (Source: CoinDesk)

Nvidia announced the next-generation Feynman architecture, including Rosa CPU, LP40 LPU, and BlueField-5. Vera Rubin is not yet complete, but the next-generation roadmap is already visible. From Blackwell to Vera Rubin to Feynman, Nvidia’s product pace is accelerating, not slowing. (Source: NVIDIA Blog)

The Linux Foundation received $12.5 million in funding to strengthen open-source software supply chain security. With frequent supply chain attacks, open-source security has shifted from volunteer projects to industry infrastructure investment. (Source: Tech Startups)

Global crypto card annualized spending reaches $18 billion, with S&P Dow Jones Indices licensing Hyperliquid perpetual contracts. Perpetual contracts are penetrating from native crypto markets into traditional financial infrastructure, signaling S&P’s entry. (Source: The Block / CoinDesk)