Bitunix Analyst: Energy Conflict Escalation and Liquidity Contraction Resonance, BTC Repeatedly Tests Support at Range Low

Crypto Market News: On March 20, the Middle East situation continues to escalate. Market focus has shifted from isolated conflicts to systemic risks in energy supply chains and shipping security. Iran has indicated that retaliatory actions are ongoing and is considering charging tolls for the Strait of Hormuz; meanwhile, several European countries and Japan have issued joint statements preparing to intervene to ensure navigational safety. An attack on Qatar’s LNG facilities has damaged about 17% of exports, further increasing energy supply uncertainties. The U.S. has sent mixed signals—considering easing Iran oil sanctions to lower prices, while also increasing military budgets and regional arms sales, highlighting strategic disagreements.

On the policy front, interest rate market expectations are rapidly adjusting, currently pricing in about a 5.5 basis point cut this year, with some bets on rate hikes. The Bank of England unanimously kept rates steady but signaled potential hikes; the European Central Bank raised inflation expectations; and the Bank of Japan is also monitoring oil price risks. Major global central banks are shifting toward more conservative stances, marginally tightening liquidity conditions. Meanwhile, the U.S. plans to relax bank capital rules, releasing some funds but unlikely to offset macroeconomic contraction pressures.

Market structure-wise, the $5.7 trillion “Triple Witching” options expiration is approaching, combined with Middle East risks, amplifying asset price volatility. The VIX remains relatively high, indicating the market remains on high alert, with funds favoring short-term hedging over directional bets.

Turning to the crypto market, from the liquidation heatmap, Bitcoin has retreated from highs and is forming a clear long-short battle zone between $69,000 and $71,000. This area has accumulated significant short-term leverage positions, reflecting attempts by funds to establish a bottom support. The $68,500 level below is a key liquidity defense zone for short-term trading. Above, the $70,800 range and near $72,000 still show substantial short liquidity, indicating the market has yet to see a genuine return of risk appetite.

Overall, macro liquidity tightening combined with energy risks maintains a “high volatility, low trend” state. Currently, Bitcoin mainly reflects risk appetite testing rather than trend reversal signals, with short-term fluctuations within ranges dominated by liquidity rebalancing.