Today global financial markets plunged collectively, and many people were caught off guard: shouldn't gold rise during wartime? Why is gold falling too?

Actually, the culprit behind this wave of selling is crude oil!

The market logic right now is particularly simple:
Middle East tensions escalate → oil prices surge → enterprise production costs skyrocket → profits shrink → stock markets can't hold up

And once oil prices rise, inflation follows → the Fed won't dare cut rates easily → high rates must persist longer → gold, Bitcoin, and other assets all get suppressed

So it's not simply "buy gold during war," but rather everyone is worried about stagflation (prices rising, economy not growing)!

Here are 3 key things to watch next:
1️⃣ Will the Middle East conflict spread to oil and gas core regions?
If tensions continue to escalate, oil prices will be hard to push down.

2️⃣ Will oil prices stay elevated indefinitely?
If Brent crude remains above $100-$110 per barrel long-term, then inflation, enterprise costs, and consumer confidence will all suffer—that's a big problem.

3️⃣ Will the Fed remain hawkish?
As long as inflation doesn't come down, the Fed will keep saying "high rates will persist longer," and all investment assets will face pressure.

A word on gold and Bitcoin:
Gold can provide hedging, but it can't withstand the market's fear that rates will stay high, so it gets dragged down too.

Bitcoin isn't even a safe-haven asset—it's the "magnifying glass" of market sentiment. When facing stagflation plus high rates, falling first is the natural response.

So don't just stare at whether a particular asset's price breaks through support levels. Focus more on oil prices and interest rate expectations! If oil prices don't retreat, markets won't truly stabilize.
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