$BTC Evening Market Outlook

Bitcoin briefly broke through the hourly triangle consolidation pattern but failed to hold the upper boundary, with a shooting star pattern forming at the high, signaling strong selling pressure from above. This rebound reached 71342 before encountering resistance and retreating, moving back into the triangle formation while completing the first retest of the 70408 support level.

If the 70408 support holds effectively, there remains potential for another breakthrough of the triangle; to initiate a new uptrend, price must first break above the shooting star high of 71342, then attack the 71565 resistance level. Only after solidly establishing both key levels can we target 72350 and higher, with any failure to break through limiting upside potential.

If the market weakens and breaks below 70408 support, it will probe the 69809 neckline, which serves as the extreme support for this correction; once breached, the rebound structure from 69809 to 71342 will be invalidated, and attention should shift to 69203 and prior lows, with 68214 becoming the next target if the breakdown continues.

This rebound is not without traceable causes. The prior white box zone exhibited a reversal morning star pattern, establishing the foundation for the rebound; subsequently, price encountered resistance at 70408, confirmed support effectiveness after retesting 69809, then produced this 71342 rebound move with clear logic.

Trading Reference

• On volume breaking above 70865, can chase long to participate in rebound bounce;

• On volume breaking below 70033 with inability to recover on bounce, can chase short with strict stop-loss.

Level Outlook

• Hourly level: If holding 70865, target 71565-72350 above; failure to hold means upside invalid;

• 4-hour level: Break below 69827, target 68766-68313 below.

On the daily level, Bitcoin has formed an isolated high after rallying, then retreated into a flag pattern zone, with overall return to oscillation format. Flag upper boundary at 74606 and lower boundary at 66580; range traders can operate around these highs and lows for profit-taking and buying on dips, with immediate stop-loss on breakout or breakdown. The oscillation cycle duration is unknown; the longer it oscillates, the more opportunities for high selling and low buying; currently, daily MACD fast and slow lines have risen above zero axis with bulls dominating, personal approach focuses on buying dips as primary strategy.