Oil prices surge 📈 → Inflationary pressures increase ↑ → Expectations for rate cuts are delayed / risks of rate hikes rise → Risk assets face short-term downward pressure 📉

This is the classic short-term decline chain under supply shocks ⛓️
But conversely: if geopolitical tensions ease → oil prices fall rapidly ↓ → inflation expectations become anchored → the rate cut trajectory restarts → risk assets are likely to V-shaped recover 📈
The biggest variable now is: how long will the US-Iran conflict last? How quickly will Brent crude prices fall? What are your thoughts? 💁‍♀️