Bitunix Analyst: The war delay and liquidity contraction resonate, trapping BTC in the $65K–$72K liquidation zone

Mars Finance reports that on March 27, the global market exhibits a “surface stability, internal imbalance” structure: the EU and US trade agreements have been approved, the US has lifted some sanctions and postponed strikes against Iranian energy facilities, attempting to maintain stability in policy and diplomacy expectations. However, actual military resources have already begun to be deployed to the Middle East, and geopolitical risks have not cooled but are instead being “priced for delay.” Meanwhile, Turkey has been selling gold on a large scale, the EU has increased trade costs, and Japan has signaled currency intervention, indicating that countries are simultaneously using different tools to withdraw liquidity and stabilize their domestic currency systems. Global funds are shifting from free flow to regional defense. More importantly, the inflation logic has been re-anchored. Federal Reserve officials have explicitly shifted the risk focus from employment to inflation, implying that policy tolerance is tightening, while uncertainties surrounding oil prices and war continue to push “interest rate cut expectations” out of the pricing system. Japan’s rising interest rates and the yen approaching intervention levels further amplify the risks of capital returning domestically and interest rate spread reversals. In this context, the strengthening dollar is no longer just a safe haven but a result of liquidity withdrawal, and the global market has entered a phase of passive deleveraging and asset re-pricing. Returning to the crypto market, BTC has fully transformed into a reflection of liquidity structure. Based on current price and volume data, prices are oscillating repeatedly within a broad range of approximately 65k–72k, with volume distribution showing significant supply pressure above 70k, while passive accumulation continues around 65k. The CVD is slowly recovering, but prices have not reached new highs; active buying exists but lacks continuity, indicating absorption of selling pressure rather than trend-driving momentum. Meanwhile, the long-short ratio among large holders remains low, suggesting the market is still primarily conservative in its allocations, and leverage has not tilted unilaterally. This structure essentially reflects the current macro environment—funds are reluctant to exit but also unwilling to take on directional risk, leading to prices being passively matched and repeatedly liquidated in liquidity-dense zones. In the short term, if the war remains in a “delayed but unresolved” state and interest rate expectations continue to tighten, BTC is more likely to stay within a high-frequency oscillation range, shifting chips by sweeping liquidity between 65k and 72k. A true trend breakout, however, still requires a consistent change in the three macro variables rather than being driven by a single event.