On March 28, the past week has seen intense volatility in global markets driven by dual shocks from geopolitical tensions and monetary policy. The confrontation between the US and Iran has entered a phase of "military pressure + diplomatic negotiations," with restricted passage through the Strait of Hormuz becoming a key variable, pushing crude oil prices back to high levels and significantly raising global inflation expectations.

Against this backdrop, expectations for Federal Reserve policy have shifted critically. Several officials have signaled hawkish stances, and the market has quickly shifted from betting on rate cuts this year to "maintaining high interest rates for a longer period," even re-pricing the possibility of rate hikes. The US dollar index has rebounded above 100, US Treasury yields have risen in tandem, and global liquidity expectations have tightened.

Asset performance has shown clear divergence: gold has remained volatile but held high, while crude oil has become the strongest mainline asset; US stocks faced downward pressure, with all three major indices closing lower for the week, led by technology stocks. In the forex market, the yen continued to weaken, approaching a key intervention zone, while other non-dollar currencies generally came under pressure.

Meanwhile, significant changes have also occurred in global policies and capital flows. Japan has released large-scale strategic oil reserves and is considering market interventions via futures to influence oil prices; Singapore is accelerating the development of a gold trading hub; Turkey has heavily used its gold reserves to cope with liquidity pressures.

Overall, the current market has entered a high-volatility cycle of "geopolitical conflict-driven inflation—repricing of monetary policy—asset revaluation," with the short-term main focus still centered on the evolving Middle East situation and global central bank policy paths. #成长值抽奖赢金条