Old on-chain models are now telling a rather simple story: the BTC bottom is likely lower than everyone would like. The 46-54k zone doesn't look like a worst-case scenario, but rather like a perfectly viable scenario where the market has previously found equilibrium after overheating.

The orange line essentially represents the money in the system. And since November, it's been gradually leaving. No drama, no crashes. It's simply that less capital is remaining in the system. This isn't panic, but rather a post-hype breather. But it's precisely at moments like these that the market sags—when the influx runs out.