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Limited version, speech last night, pigeon, in line with market expectations.
Powell's three key points: olive branch, hawkish constraints, and the unspoken bottom line.
First layer (dovish olive branch): temporarily ignoring the impact of oil prices. Maintaining interest rates at 3.5%-3.75%. The market immediately interprets this as dovish: rate hike bets are withdrawn, and expectations for rate cuts this year are recalibrated. U.S. Treasury yields plummeted by about 10 basis points across the board, and the three major stock indices briefly surged.
Second layer (hawkish constraints): patience has a clear limit, and inflation expectations are the bottom line. Powell can tolerate temporary inflation caused by oil prices, but cannot tolerate a loss of confidence in the Fed's ability to control inflation. If that happens, he will tighten policy without hesitation.
Third layer (bottom line): the "leadership transition" period of monetary policy, no one will make drastic shifts. The period ending May 15, during any major policy transition, the Federal Reserve naturally tends to maintain the status quo.