Brothers, I am Lao Liang! The market movements on March 31st were faster than expected. No more nonsense—I'll give you the core insights in detail. Every sentence is based on practical experience; if you don’t listen, you’re really missing out!

1. Macro Outlook: Currently in a bottom zone, but only for stopping the bleeding, not a reversal

Last night’s Powell speech mainly signaled a dovish stance, clearly indicating the possibility of rate cuts this year. Once the news broke, both U.S. Treasuries and the dollar responded with declines. For the crypto market, this is a real liquidity boost, directly reversing the previous panic over a “rate hike deadlock,” effectively applying the brakes to the market.

But a key reminder: this is only a stabilization at the bottom, not a full reversal! Don’t be blindly optimistic or get carried away—bottom oscillations and consolidation are normal. Don’t expect to reach the top in one step.

2. Dual regulatory efforts: Compliance is the survival bottom line, wild methods will be cleared out

Global regulation is clearly tightening with divergence: the U.S. has relaxed restrictions on stablecoins, offering tax exemptions for small transactions, opening the door for compliant capital to enter; meanwhile, places like Australia and Hong Kong are tightening compliance requirements, drawing stricter red lines.

In simple terms, global regulation is about paving the way for compliant funds while thoroughly cleaning out non-compliant projects. Remember this: those who can survive in the market in the future will be platforms and projects with strict compliance and robust risk controls. Wild, gray-area methods will eventually be cleared out—compliance is the line between life and death, no room for luck!

3. Capital and sentiment diverge: institutions quietly accumulating, retail still lying flat and watching

The latest data is clear: yesterday’s ETF net inflow exceeded $66 million, indicating institutional funds are quietly bottom-fishing; ETH whales continue to accumulate, while early BTC addresses are showing selling pressure.

The core contradiction in the current market is the obvious divergence between institutional positioning and low sentiment: money has already started to move quietly, but most retail investors are still panicking and staying on the sidelines. This stage tests patience—those who can stay calm and not be swayed by emotions will be able to seize the next wave of market opportunities.

4. Practical trading guide: Key levels for BTC and ETH precisely highlighted

BTC trend judgment

Core trading range: 66,800–68,000, with fierce battles between bulls and bears here:

- Resistance level: 68,000 is a short-term strong resistance. It must be broken with volume to open upward space; otherwise, expect range-bound oscillation.

- Support level: 66,800–67,000 is a critical defense zone. If broken, quickly reduce positions to hedge risks; holding this support is key to low-buy opportunities.

ETH trend judgment$ETH

ETH is generally stronger than BTC, but 2070–2080 is a short-term strong resistance zone—absolutely avoid chasing highs! Wait patiently for a pullback to the 2035–2045 support zone before making a move.

Finally, a heartfelt message to brothers: In this fragile market, not chasing highs is the iron law—absolutely must stick to it! Keep your cash ready, wait patiently for the pullback to complete before acting. Don’t act impulsively.

Market sentiment hasn’t fully warmed up yet, and the overall trend remains fragile. Whether institutions or retail investors—those who chase highs or go all-in blindly will be the first to lose money. We don’t aim to buy at the lowest or sell at the highest—just avoid getting caught chasing highs. In this market, survival is more important than anything! $BTC