Today is Good Friday, and the US stock market is closed. The next trading session will be on Monday. The biggest hope now is that Trump won't cause any trouble over the weekend, but I think he's already done almost everything he could. The next three weeks are likely to focus on the Iran conflict. Today was also quite strange—oil prices kept rising, yet the US stock market actually rebounded, and there’s even a possibility it could close higher.

Although tomorrow is a holiday, the non-farm payroll data will still be released. While the data isn't as critical as before, it still has some market impact. Based on the forecast, the unemployment rate is expected to remain steady, and non-farm employment just needs to shift from negative to positive compared to last month. Anything more than that is hard to imagine. Although there’s another Federal Reserve meeting at the end of the month, the probability of no change remains the highest. Many investors are worried about a rate hike, but it still seems a bit early.

Recently, the war has been escalating more and more. The price of US crude oil has surged above $110. The Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea might both face restrictions. Previously, Trump said passage was possible, but now it’s become a matter of the US not relying on the Strait of Hormuz—who depends on it should handle it themselves. Honestly, that’s not a bad point. Today, Europe is holding a meeting to discuss this. Currently, Iran is restricting US and Israeli ships from passing, but other vessels should be able to pay and go through. From this perspective, Trump’s declaration that the Strait of Hormuz remains open might not be wrong. 🤣

I think Trump will regret this war and might even curse about it. Things were going pretty well, but now they’re stuck with Iran, and there are a bunch of other issues waiting for him.

Looking at BTC data, the turnover rate has increased a bit, but not significantly. Investor sentiment is relatively relaxed. Although prices have dipped somewhat, there’s no clear sign of panic. Currently, most of the selling is from short-term investors, while some are gradually becoming long-term investors. Unfortunately, liquidity is really poor, and the overall market sentiment is being influenced by the war. Investors are still cautious with their funds. As we head into the weekend, liquidity will likely be even worse.