Daily Report by Zhang Chi | April 4 Morning Briefing in One Sentence

1. A U.S. Air Force F-15 was shot down inside Iran, and one pilot has been rescued.
For the first time in a war, an aircraft was downed by enemy fire, escalating the situation further.
2. The UAE aluminum plant was severely damaged, and resumption of production may take a year.
Global aluminum supply gap widens, and aluminum prices are expected to rise in the medium term.
3. U.S. non-farm payrolls for March exceeded expectations, reducing rate cut expectations.
Strong employment + high oil prices make it harder for the Federal Reserve to cut rates.
4. Three Omani ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz, but U.S. military insurance doubled to $40 billion.
Navigation has made progress, but the U.S. is increasing escort efforts, and risks remain.
5. Iran: Can sustain a blockade in the strait for years.
A long-term confrontation signal, energy premiums are unlikely to subside.

One sentence summary: Non-farm payrolls are a short-term negative for rate cuts + ongoing geopolitical tensions, short-term bearish.
#Gate广场四月发帖挑战 #三月非农数据来袭