April Timeline of the US-Israel-Iran War and Its Core Impact on the Capital Markets.

【Below I will briefly summarize the situation of April’s conflict between the US and Iran, based on the timeline, leaders’ statements, and the events themselves】 🔥 April 1 (Day 33 of the conflict) • Trump’s White House address: Claims the US has achieved an “overwhelming victory” in the war against Iran, saying the war will end within 2–3 weeks. • The US deploys 18 more A-10 attack aircraft to the Middle East, escalating military power! • Iran launches the 89th wave of “True Promise-4” retaliation: more than 100 missiles + drones strike US and Israeli military targets (across Kuwait, Bahrain, and all of Israel) • Iran announces: it will designate 18 US companies in the Middle East (including Microsoft, Apple, Google, etc.) as targets of attack • US-Israel airstrike hits the former US embassy area in Tehran 🔥 April 2 (Day 34 of the conflict) • US-Israel airstrike on the Beyk-e bridge in Iran (the highest civilian bridge in the Middle East), causing 8 deaths and 95 injuries; Trump boasts in a video.

• Israel says: in 24 hours it destroyed 20 Iranian military-industrial targets, and 90% of key military-industrial capabilities.

• Iran launches the 91st wave of retaliation: missile strikes on Tel Aviv and Haifa, Israel, and on the US military headquarters in Bahrain.

• The US proposes a 48-hour ceasefire through a third party; Iran rejects it on the spot and continues the offensive.

• Iran threatens: to blockade the Strait of Hormuz + cut the undersea internet cables in the Red Sea.

🔥 April 3 (Day 35 of the conflict · Intensity escalates)

• For the first time in its own territory, Iran downs a manned US aircraft:

◦ An F-15E fighter jet is shot down; 1 pilot is missing, and Iran offers a reward for capturing the pilot alive.

◦ An A-10 attack aircraft is shot down near the Strait of Hormuz.

• Iran launches the 93rd wave offensive of “True Promise-4”: strikes on US military radars, bases, and data centers.

• A large-scale night assault by the US and Israel on Tehran, with dense explosions and power outages across multiple places.

• Israel says: the strikes damage 70% of Iran’s steel production capacity!

• Trump issues a negotiation ultimatum for April 6, threatening to bomb Iran’s energy facilities!

• Ceasefire mediation completely falls into a deadlock.

🔥 April 4 (Day 36 of the conflict · Continued escalation)

• The US and Israel continue airstrikes on Iran and targets of the Lebanese Hezbollah.

• Iran warns: expanding strikes to US-Israel civilian livelihood infrastructure (power plants, water plants, transportation)

• The UN Security Council vote to postpone; many countries call for an emergency ceasefire

• International experts: some actions by the US and Israel against civilian facilities may constitute war crimes!

• Global markets: oil prices top $110, gold surges higher, and global stock markets plunge!

The above compilation is collected from the internet; information may be incomplete. A simple summary is as follows:

1: 4.1–4.2: The US wants to stop the fighting, Iran responds firmly with retaliation, and strikes expand to civilian/industrial targets.

2: 4.3: Iran downs 2 manned US aircraft, and the conflict’s intensity escalates completely.

3: 4.6 Ultimatum: Trump sets a deadline—no talks, then he bombs energy facilities.

4: The battlefield spreads from military to civilian to the global economy; a ceasefire is basically out of reach.

【Returning to the main point below: explain the underlying logic behind the conflict and the core impact on capital markets】

Three major core contradictions:

(1) Hegemony vs. anti-hegemony: who controls the Middle East order

• The US: wants to maintain petrodollar + military hegemony, and won’t allow Iran to become a regional power.

• Iran: wants to break US monopoly, expand self-defense + influence of Shiites.

(2) The energy throat: the Strait of Hormuz = the lifeline of the global economy

• Globally, 30% of seaborne oil shipments pass through here, and a large amount of LNG (liquefied natural gas) goes through here as well.

• If Iran controls the strait, then once it’s locked down, global inflation and supply-chain shocks follow.

• The US wants the strait opened; Iran wants the US and Israel to withdraw, lift sanctions, and provide compensation before it will open.

(3) Domestic politics hijack (both sides are doing it)

• The US: election pressure on Trump, high inflation, public war-weariness—but it can’t admit defeat and lose hegemony.

• Iran: the top leader is killed; nationalist + religious sentiments are at a peak— the government can’t compromise. → Both sides have nowhere to back down, so they can only fight harder and harder.

Impact on capital markets:

🔥1. Crude oil (the most direct, the most severe)

• Logic: ◦ The strait is semi-blocked, creating supply panic.

◦ Iran threatens to blow up global energy infrastructure.

◦ The April 6 ultimatum: no talks means full blockade → oil prices keep surging upward.

• Impact: ◦ Soaring costs for aviation, shipping, logistics, chemicals, and manufacturing.

◦ Global inflation rises again, and the Federal Reserve delays rate cuts.

🔥2. Global stock markets (under broad pressure)

• US stocks / European stocks / Asia-Pacific: 4.3–4.4 see a collective plunge, and risk appetite collapses.

◦ Technology, consumer, and financials lag badly (rate hikes + economic slowdown).

◦ Defense contractors and energy relatively hold up / rise. • Logic:

◦ Escalation of war increases the risk of stagflation (high inflation + low growth).

◦ Risk assets face capital flight, shifting to safe havens.

🔥3. Precious metals (gold): safe-haven strength

• After 4.3: gold jumps and holds above $4700 per ounce.

• Logic:

◦ Geopolitical uncertainty is high, US dollar credibility is damaged, and inflation concerns rise.

◦ Traditional safe-haven assets rise more as the war gets worse.

🔥4. The US dollar, exchange rates, and the bond market

• US Dollar Index: strengthens in the short term (safe haven), but faces pressure in the medium to long term (the war drains the country’s strength, and inflation).

• US Treasuries: short-term safe-haven buying demand, but long-term inflation + deficits suppress yields.

• Emerging market currencies: generally depreciate (capital outflows, and imported inflation).

🔥5. Commodities & supply chains

• Natural gas, coal: track higher with oil.

• Aluminum, copper, chemical products: Middle East production capacity/transport disrupted → prices rise.

• Shipping: Red Sea/Persian Gulf freight rates explode, insurance premiums skyrocket, and routes are diverted.

【Final summary: conflict escalation = what markets price in: war becomes prolonged, oil stays at high levels, inflation returns, global stocks face pressure, and gold safe-haven demand strengthens.】

Then comes the most critical part: the two outcomes of the April 6 ultimatum: ◦ Talk: oil prices fall, stock markets rebound ◦ No talk / talks break down: oil surges to 140+ , global stock markets tumble, and gold jumps higher.