March Non-Farm Data Is Coming — The “Prosperity Mirage” Behind 1.778 Million

U.S. March non-farm employment data has just been released, with an increase of 178,000 jobs, far exceeding market expectations of 60,000. The unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, the largest single-month increase since December 2024. At first glance, this looks like an “absurdly strong” report, as the U.S. dollar index surged straight through the 100 level and U.S. Treasury yields climbed in response. But behind this set of numbers, does it really mean that the U.S. economy is prospering across the board?

⚠️ Three hidden signals you cannot ignore:

First, February data was revised sharply downward to -133,000, with an extremely large fluctuation range. January data was revised upward to 160,000, but combined, the two months still come in 0.7 million fewer than previously. This kind of extreme fluctuation of “downward revisions—spike—downward revisions” itself suggests that the stability of the job market is questionable.

Second, the healthcare industry “propels the whole show.” In March, healthcare and medical services added 76,000 jobs, more than double the 29,000 monthly average over the past 12 months. This is mainly a “compensatory rebound” after healthcare workers’ strikes in California and Hawaii were resolved previously, rather than a genuine expansion of new positions.

Third, the labor force participation rate fell to 61.9%, the lowest since 2021. Part of the reason the unemployment rate declined is that 396,000 people exited the labor force. The participation rate among the core working-age population is also falling, as the number of people working part-time for economic reasons is rising. The message this sends is not “everyone has a job,” but “many people have already given up on finding one.”

🔥 More critically, this report basically does not reflect the real impact of the Middle East conflict at all!

Goldman Sachs has clearly pointed out that the transmission of the war’s impacts often lags by 4 to 8 weeks. The survey week in March only reflects sentiment from late February to early March, while the ongoing escalation of the U.S.-Iran conflict, the disruption to passage through the Strait of Hormuz, and the surge in energy prices will gradually show up in the data for April and May. After Trump claimed on April 1 that he achieved a “decisive victory” over Iran and then said he would continue to “launch fierce strikes,” these conflicting signals further intensify economic uncertainty. Economists expect that if the conflict continues, companies may delay hiring or lay off workers due to higher energy prices and weaker demand.

📉 Impact on Federal Reserve Policy: Rate-Cut Expectations “Nearly Zero”

After the data was released, CME’s “FedWatch” showed that the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in June dropped sharply from 7.8% to 2.0%, while the probability of maintaining rates unchanged rose to 97.5%. The market has almost completely wiped out the remaining rate-cut expectations for 2026. The International Monetary Fund had previously said that although the U.S. inflation rate is trending downward, this year policymakers have almost no room to cut rates.

When “employment is strong” meets “oil prices are out of control,” the Federal Reserve is getting trapped in the most troublesome stagflation dilemma— the economy hasn’t collapsed, but inflation could be pushed up by energy prices. They don’t dare to raise rates further, and they can’t cut rates either, so they can only “keep rates unchanged and move forward while watching.” #Gate廣場四月發帖挑戰

🎯 Core conclusion:

The “prosperity” in March non-farm payrolls is more of a technical rebound after the extreme weather and the fade-out of strikes in February, not a signal that the labor market is genuinely accelerating. What investors truly need to be wary of is— the real Middle East shockwave has not yet been reflected in any data. The next key observation window is the April CPI and the May employment report. Before then, the market will be caught in a double squeeze between “strong data suppressing rate-cut expectations” and “geopolitical risk pushing inflation expectations higher.”
#三月非農數據來襲