Litecoin (LTC) — Dormant After the Halving, Return of the Payment Narrative

While Bitcoin and Ethereum dominate the headlines, Litecoin seems to have been forgotten. But LTC is currently trading at around 82 dollars, down 32% from its 2025 high of 120 dollars. Its market cap is approximately 6.1 billion dollars, and it still ranks in the top 20 cryptocurrencies. As “Bitcoin’s silver,” Litecoin has already completed its third halving in August 2025, and the block reward has been reduced to 3.125 LTC. Historical data shows that 6–12 months after a halving often see price increases, but this time, due to the macro environment, the halving effect has been delayed.

Recent on-chain data is worth paying attention to:

· Litecoin’s average daily transaction volume stays at 150,000–200,000 transactions, which is not too far behind Bitcoin’s 300,000, but its transfer fees are only around 0.001 dollars, still giving it an advantage in payment scenarios.
· Litecoin’s MVRV Z-Score is around 0.5, far below the historical top zone (3.0 or above), indicating that valuation is at a relatively low level.
· The share of addresses holding for more than one year reaches 65%, showing that long-term holders are reluctant to sell.

Macroeconomic impacts:
The Middle East conflict and the risk-off sentiment triggered by Trump’s tariffs have suppressed LTC-like high-beta altcoins. But Litecoin also has its own unique narrative—payment currency. If high global energy prices lead to higher traditional transfer costs, Litecoin’s low-fee advantage may draw renewed attention. In addition, payment processors such as PayPal and BitPay still support LTC, providing real-world application scenarios.

Regarding Trump’s policies, he has previously been indecisive in his stance toward cryptocurrencies, but his campaign team has said it “supports the right to self-custody.” If, in the future, the United States introduces a regulatory framework that is favorable for crypto payments, Litecoin could become one of the beneficiaries. In the short-term technical outlook, LTC has strong support in the 75–78 dollars range. If Bitcoin stabilizes and rebounds, LTC could rebound to 95–100 dollars. If it breaks below 75 dollars, investors should be alert to the risk of further downside toward 65 dollars.

For investors who are willing to take on higher volatility and are bullish on the long-term value of the payments sector, the current range may be suitable for phased small DCA buys.

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