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The probability of "U.S. military entering Iran before April 30" on Polymarket has increased significantly. The current probability is 96.5%.
According to Al Jazeera, a U.S. government official told Al Jazeera that the second crew member of the fighter jet shot down has been rescued, and the rescue operation is still ongoing. The missing crew member has been confirmed to be rescued but has not yet been out of danger. They added that the rescue team still needs to successfully withdraw from Iran and return safely.
According to Polymarket's determination rules, this market will be considered "Yes" if any active-duty U.S. military personnel actually enter Iran before the specified deadline (the EST time). Otherwise, the market will be considered "No." Special operations personnel are eligible; but intelligence personnel are not counted. U.S. military personnel must actually enter Iranian territory to qualify. Entry into Iran's waters or airspace does not count.