《Swearing and the Ten-Point Terms: From “Deterrence Dialogue” Sliding into “Misjudgment Spiral”》

Trump swore on social media, demanding that Iran “open the Strait of Hormuz.” Iran, in turn, rejected a ceasefire via Pakistan and attached ten conditions. This kind of interaction pattern is unsettling: one side uses emotional, domestically oriented deterrence language, while the other uses procedural, internationally oriented diplomatic language. Between the two languages, there is no bridge for direct communication, and the risk of misjudgment is rising sharply.

The military-level risk lies in the fact that the Strait of Hormuz is only about 50 kilometers wide, and at the narrowest point the shipping channel is just 3 kilometers. Along the coast, Iran has deployed large numbers of anti-ship missiles, drones, and fast attack boats. The headquarters of the U.S. Fifth Fleet is based in Bahrain and has strong air and maritime strike capabilities. In such a highly crowded space, a so-called “provocative close approach,” signal jamming by a drone, or even a false radar lock report could trigger an exchange of fire. And once fighting starts, neither side has a ready-made “de-escalation mechanism”—because even direct communication channels do not exist.

That Iran conveys messages through Pakistan already shows that there is no effective military hotline between the U.S. and Iran. In the 1984 tanker war, at least the U.S. and the Soviet Union had an emergency communication mechanism; today, between the U.S. and Iran there are only indirect channels through Switzerland, Oman, or Pakistan. This kind of indirect back-and-forth can be maintained in peacetime, but in a crisis, a delay of several hours may be the difference between life and death.

Another risk that is overlooked is escalation by proxies. Iran has allied forces in Iraq, Syria, Yemen, and Lebanon. If the U.S. takes a hardline action in the strait, Iran may not necessarily directly retaliate against U.S. warships, but could retaliate by attacking U.S. military bases in Iraq or Syria, or by threatening Red Sea shipping through the Houthis. This kind of asymmetric escalation is difficult to control; once it begins, the entire Middle East could fall into a state of multiple fire points burning at once.

Conclusion: Trump’s swearing and Iran’s mockery may look like a slanging match, but they are actually dangerous signals ahead of a military crisis. Neither side has truly prepared for war, yet both are “showing resolve” in ways that make the other uncomfortable. If this display is not stopped in time, history has proven countless times: it will run away on its own.
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