Under extreme pressure, the negotiation table is just a "showcase"

From the "10-point plan" to the "15-point plan," the numerical difference behind these proposals reflects a fundamental collapse of trust between the U.S. and Iran. Trump's so-called "final ultimatum" is essentially maximum pressure—demanding Iran to completely abandon its nuclear program, withdraw from Syria, and cease supporting proxies. These demands touch on Iran's red lines of national security. Meanwhile, after years of sanctions, Iran has learned to leverage "resistance economy" and geopolitical games to gain bargaining chips, making unilateral surrender unlikely in the short term.

Certainly, neither side wants an actual war (especially with the U.S. presidential election approaching), but "peace through handshake" requires substantial concessions. Currently, Trump seems more inclined to use military threats to force Iran back to the negotiating table and accept "America First" terms, while Iran aims to delay until a change in U.S. leadership. Therefore, the likelihood of reaching any peace agreement before April 9 is nearly zero. The real variables may only emerge if oil prices break above $120 and U.S. stocks come under pressure, prompting the White House to reassess the costs of a hard confrontation.

Personal opinion: The standoff will continue, but with "controlled escalation." In the short term, attention is on whether Iran will block the Strait of Hormuz—that would be the true black swan event.