The “Bitcoin War Paradox”: Short-term Pressure, Long-term Safe Haven?

Bitcoin has recently come under pressure and corrected downward. The direct reason is that the escalation of the US-Iran conflict caused funds to flow into traditional safe-haven assets such as gold and the US dollar, while risk assets (including BTC) were sold off. This is a typical “liquidity crunch” reaction—institutions prioritize realizing gains from assets with high volatility amid uncertainty.

But interestingly, on-chain data shows that addresses holding for more than 1 year are still increasing their holdings, and exchange balances have fallen to the lowest level since 2018. This means long-term believers have not exited the market; the main source of short-term selling pressure is panic selling from hedge funds and retail traders.

From a technical standpoint, the BTC daily chart has already fallen below the 60-day moving average (about $68,500). Strong support lies in the $62,000-$64,000 range. To rebound back to the $70,000 level, three conditions must be met at the same time:
① The US-Iran situation stops worsening (or a ceasefire signal appears);
② The US stock market stabilizes, and the VIX fear index falls back below 20;
③ The Bitcoin halving narrative once again takes the lead in driving market sentiment (currently there are about 10 days left).

Overall, it will be difficult for the next week to see a rebound to $70,000. More likely, price will first trade sideways in the $64,000-$69,000 range. If oil prices remain above $115, rising inflation expectations will weigh on the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates, which is unfavorable for BTC. The real breakout window may come around the time of the April 20 halving.

Personal strategy: Keep 50% of your position, and use the remaining funds for low-buy, high-sell. If BTC drops to around $63,000, add to your position in batches.
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