The so-called ceasefire or negotiation news is essentially more like a smokescreen to delay preparations and stabilize oil prices. The stalemate of the war and the backlash on the economic front will continue to hover over geopolitics and markets.

Currently, the 15 conditions proposed by the U.S. and the 10 demands listed by Iran yesterday have almost no overlap. Iran wants Trump to admit failure, withdraw all troops, compensate for damages, and lift all sanctions before agreeing to a ceasefire; whereas the U.S. demands Iran to fully denuclearize, dismantle missiles, and cut ties with allies, which is no different from demanding its surrender to the U.S. and Israel. The possibility of both sides reaching a compromise is extremely low.

For Iran, continuing the war has its intrinsic motivations. On one hand, they are reluctant to suffer losses; on the other hand, the war itself is beneficial for internal power restructuring. Hardliners, who control national resource mobilization during wartime, can push forward the transformation of the Revolutionary Guard into a military government by maintaining the war effort; after Khamenei’s death and the loss of support for the elected government, the hardliners can leverage the honor built through military victories to obtain everything they want.

Therefore, Iran’s 10 demands are essentially a bargaining chip and a strategic extortion to pressure Trump. Iran is not short of war reparations: if they win, they can recover costs through tolls on the Strait of Hormuz; if they cannot achieve a quick victory, they can prolong the conflict into a stalemate, forcing the U.S. to continue resource consumption.

Trump cannot afford to drag this out. War spillover could worsen domestic inflation, push up long-term U.S. Treasury yields, and potentially impact the midterm elections. Over the past month, the White House has been oscillating between pretending to be tough and avoiding deep involvement. This also explains why he rarely broke down during yesterday’s live broadcast—time is tight, and maintaining toughness is becoming unsustainable.

From the perspective of weapon consumption, the situation is equally severe. Iran’s interceptor missile reserves are running out, while their ability to breach defenses of Israel and Gulf countries is increasing. The attack on the Jubail industrial zone in Saudi Arabia yesterday is a clear example. At the current rate of consumption, within just a month, the use of PAC-3 interceptors in the Middle East has exceeded Ukraine’s total consumption over four years of the Russia-Ukraine war. Once interception capabilities are exhausted, oil fields and natural gas wells will be fully exposed within the Revolutionary Guard’s missile range.

Before the deadline arrives, will Trump regret ordering the assassination of Khamenei? After all, Khamenei was originally someone who advocated surrender to the U.S.—the risks of that decision are simply too high.

In this context, the crypto and altcoin markets can remain on the sidelines. The true positive news and investment opportunities may only emerge once the war’s outcome becomes clear. #Gate广场四月发帖挑战