The Directional Choice in the Bull-Bear Tug-of-War — Latest Trends in the Crypto Market

Over the past two days, the crypto market has experienced intense tug-of-war between macro risks and regulatory positives. Bitcoin's $70k resistance level was briefly broken and then lost again, with market sentiment remaining tense.

On Monday, driven by expectations of a US-Iran ceasefire, Bitcoin briefly surged past $70k, hitting a new high since March. However, this rally was mainly driven by short covering, with over $145 million in short positions liquidated—a classic short squeeze rebound. But the rally was short-lived. As the deadline set by Trump approached, the situation quickly turned around, and Bitcoin rapidly fell back to around $68,500, erasing all previous gains.

Geopolitical maneuvering remains the heaviest weight on the market. Oil prices have broken through $110 per barrel, increasing inflation pressures and dampening expectations for rate cuts. As analysts note, this is a market entirely driven by headline news—each negotiation update can trigger sharp volatility.

Contrasting with the short-term turbulence is the substantial progress in US crypto regulation. The SEC’s “Safe Harbor” framework has been submitted for White House review, proposing a four-year exemption for crypto projects; the Clarification Act is expected to be voted on by the end of April, with a market forecast of a 63% chance of passing within the year. If these developments materialize, they will finally end years of legal vacuum in the industry.

On the capital front, divergence is intensifying. Bitcoin ETFs saw modest net inflows this week, while Ethereum ETFs lost over $42 million during the same period. Meanwhile, the supply of Ethereum stablecoins has surpassed $180 billion, hitting a record high, indicating on-chain funds remain ample.

In the short term, market direction depends on the final outcome of the Middle East situation; in the long term, regulatory clarity is paving the way for a more institutionalized industry. The tug-of-war at the $70k level is far from over, but certainty is replacing speculation as the main theme for the next phase.

Friendly reminder: Geopolitical uncertainties are high, and crypto market volatility is intense. Please make decisions cautiously.
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