4.8 Gold Briefing: U.S.-Iran Geopolitical Détente Continues, Gold Extends Rebound Pattern

On Wednesday during Asian trading hours, gold fluctuated and strengthened, reaching around 4850, hitting a two-week high and demonstrating resilience. Although the U.S. announced a two-week pause in military actions against Iran, gold did not weaken with the easing of geopolitical tensions. Instead, it reconfigured its layout, with the current upward momentum driven by a dual resonance of inflation expectations and policy uncertainty.

This ceasefire comes with conditions; the shipping status of the Strait of Hormuz remains a key variable moving forward. Fluctuations in crude oil prices have pushed up global energy costs, further strengthening inflation resilience and providing fundamental support for gold prices. On a macro level, energy disruptions may delay the downward trend of inflation, limiting central banks' room to cut interest rates. The market prices in about a 40% chance of rate cuts this year, creating a multi-dimensional balance between interest rate policies and gold’s safe-haven attributes.

From a technical perspective, the daily chart remains above a strong upward channel, with the 4-hour cycle consolidating at high levels. During pullbacks, focus first on the 4790–4760 range, which is a key psychological and technical support zone for this breakout, as well as a confirmation midpoint on the 4-hour chart.

Secondary strong support is seen around 4750–4755, representing the lower boundary of recent consolidation. In case of a deep retracement, this area serves as the last line of defense for bulls and is an excellent zone for low-positioning.

Upward resistance is segmented: the initial resistance zone is between 4850–4890. Once a volume-driven breakout occurs, the upward space will open up, with the market focus shifting directly to 4900, then challenging the psychological milestone of 5000.