#Gate广场四月发帖挑战 The US-Iran ceasefire has been implemented, and the capital markets are experiencing a violent surge: How far can this rebound go?

In the past 48 hours, expectations of the US-Iran ceasefire have materialized, leading to a violent reversal in global capital markets: crude oil plummeted, US stocks soared, and cryptocurrencies surged significantly. The most common question is: How long can this rally last? Is it a one-day phenomenon or a trend reversal?
Let's clarify the core logic first: this rally is not purely driven by emotional speculation but results from the combined effects of risk premium decline, reinitiated rate cut expectations, and short covering. The ceasefire eliminates the biggest tail risk, oil prices cooling down inflation expectations, and the Federal Reserve's June rate cut expectations reigniting, along with previous short positions being forced to cover, all fueling the violent rebound.
Regarding the duration, it can be divided into three stages:
Short-term (1-3 days): The inertia of the rally may continue, as short-term funds and short covering push prices higher. However, the rapid rise may lead to overbought indicators, and profit-taking or pullbacks could occur at any time. It is not advisable to chase the high.
Medium-term (3-7 days): Focus on two signals—whether the US-Iran ceasefire will repeatedly break down, and whether the April CPI, PCE, and other data from the Federal Reserve remain moderate. If both signals are stable, the rebound can last about 7 days; if any deteriorate, the rally will quickly end.
Long-term (more than 7 days): It is unlikely to develop into a major bull market. The ceasefire only removes a black swan; core issues like global recession, corporate earnings, and crypto regulation remain unresolved. The rebound is mostly a corrective move, ultimately returning to fundamental oscillations.

Practical advice:
Avoid chasing highs in the short term; wait for a pullback to key support levels before adding positions, and set moving stop-losses.
In the medium term, closely monitor ceasefire implementation and Federal Reserve data. If signals remain stable, hold your positions; if conditions worsen, exit promptly. Keep your position size below 30%, maintain sufficient cash, and implement solid risk management.

The US-Iran ceasefire is a short-term confidence booster, not a long-term cure. Don't get carried away by the surge; follow the signals and manage risk carefully to profit steadily in the market.