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CZ's autobiography "Binance Life" Reading Notes:
Life advice worth 100 billion: When everything is smooth sailing, never easily hit the brakes!
When CZ hit 8 good shots in a row, he thought that with an 80% win rate, the next one would likely regress to the mean, and mistakes could happen.
Fear overtook intuition. To play it safe, he abandoned the powerful jump serve and switched to a standing serve that was harmless and guaranteed not to make errors.
In the end, the serve indeed didn’t make mistakes, but the momentum was abruptly broken, and he lost that crucial match.
I feel this is also a kind of mysticism: when your energy and luck are good, don’t casually change things; instead, persist and maintain the momentum.
Many people who start changing cars, houses, or even wives after getting rich often quickly go downhill, and their career and fortune can’t be sustained.
When luck is turning bad, that’s when you need to actively seek change—moving houses, changing cities, switching things—what’s called “change leads to success.”
CZ’s thinking at the time was what’s known as the gambler’s fallacy.
If a coin lands on heads 8 times in a row, is the probability that the 9th time will be tails higher? From an independent event perspective, it’s still 50%.
But in the real arena of competition or business battles, events are never independent. When you win 8 times in a row, your personal energy field is multiplied, and your opponent’s psychological defenses are collapsing. At this point, your success rate is not the usual static 80%, but approaching 100% infinitely.
Once the momentum is on your side, the only thing you need to do is step on the gas and go all out. Never hit the brakes, never doubt yourself.
When the wind starts blowing in your favor at the card table of fate, don’t bother calculating some damn probability. What you need to do is hold tight to your chips, go all-in, then jump up fiercely and deliver your most lethal strike!