“President Trump” still took a tough stance yesterday, but today announced a ceasefire. Could this be a secret long position?

Trump’s (the “President”) style of doing things is unpredictable, and the public has always found it difficult to decipher his true intentions. Yesterday, Trump was outspoken, claiming he would take a hardline approach toward Iran, seemingly ready for a major confrontation;

However, today there are reports that he aims to reach a ceasefire agreement. This sudden shift is truly unexpected, and it’s no wonder people speculate whether he is secretly positioning for a long in the financial markets, trying to profit from the market volatility.

In this changing situation, Bitcoin’s price quickly surged to $72k (72K). However, the implied volatility (IV) of at-the-money options in the main expiry periods remains declining, even the IV of options approaching this week’s expiry has decreased.

Additionally, although the market is encouraged by the rise in Bitcoin’s price, the negative skewness indicator is decreasing. Meanwhile, due to rising realized volatility (RV), the previously sharply rebounded realized volatility premium (VRP) has fallen again.

Looking at these key options indicators collectively, Bitcoin’s rebound above $70k (70K) has indeed significantly boosted market confidence;

But this boost is more due to the alleviation of fears of a black swan event (a sudden major unexpected incident) that could trigger a sharp drop in Bitcoin, rather than indicating a continued upward trend in Bitcoin prices.

In summary, regardless of Trump’s true motives, this series of actions once again reminds us that politics and financial markets are closely intertwined, and any move by political figures could trigger market storms.

As investors, in this complex and volatile environment, we need to stay vigilant and make cautious decisions to protect our assets from losses.

#特朗普 #Crypto Market