Bitcoin: ETF Funds Fluctuate with Repeated Tug-of-War, $70k Level Sparks Bull-Bear Tension

Current Market Conditions

According to Gate.io market data, Bitcoin dropped below $71,000 again on April 9, with the latest quote around $70,990, up approximately 4.22% in 24 hours. The highest point of the day reached $71,004.2 before encountering selling pressure and pulling back. On the previous day (April 8), Bitcoin surged past $72,000 amid improved macro sentiment, recording about a 7% single-day increase.

In terms of trading volume, overall activity remains active, with 24-hour spot trading volume around $7.7 billion, indicating increased divergence among market participants.

Core Driving Logic

1. Rate Cut Expectations Reignite, Macro Conditions Briefly Eased

Market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve this year shifted dramatically on April 9. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a rate cut before the end of the year surged to about 43%, whereas earlier this week, it was nearly zero. The March Fed meeting minutes also signaled a dovish tone: several participants believed that if inflation declines as expected, a rate cut would become appropriate.

However, the probability of holding rates steady in April remains high at 98.4%. The mainstream market consensus is that, with inflation still above target, the Fed is unlikely to shift policies easily in the near term.

2. Geopolitical Risks Re-Emerge, Strait of Hormuz Re-Closed

The Middle East situation worsened again after a brief easing. On April 8, the Strait of Hormuz was closed once more, with maritime tracking systems showing a tanker heading toward the strait suddenly turning around off the coast of Oman. Iranian official media confirmed the strait's complete closure, with many ships still stranded in nearby waters.

This news exerts a dual impact on risk assets: on one hand, rising oil prices will push inflation expectations higher, reinforcing the Fed’s rationale to maintain tightening; on the other hand, geopolitical uncertainty itself undermines investors’ risk appetite.

3. ETF Capital Flows Show Structural Divergence

ETF fund flows are signaling noteworthy trends. On one side, Morgan Stanley’s spot Bitcoin ETF (MSBT) saw over 1.6 million shares traded on its first day, with approximately $34 million in inflows, indicating that traditional large financial institutions continue to deploy in this space. On the other side, overall Bitcoin ETF net outflows on April 9 reached about $159 million, reflecting profit-taking pressure. Meanwhile, on-chain data shows that if BTC falls below $68,062, the liquidation of long positions on major centralized exchanges could reach $2.36B, with many leveraged long positions near that price.

Technically, analysts generally believe the current price remains above the support zone of $68,500–$70,000, with strong resistance at the $72,500–$75,000 range, which was a previous high-volume trading area and also the pressure zone of the 50-day moving average.

Key Support and Resistance Levels

· Support: $70,000 (psychological level), $68,500–$69,000 (bull-bear dividing line), $65,000–$66,500 (strong defensive zone)
· Resistance: $71,500–$72,000 (intraday resistance zone), $73,000–$75,000 (50-day moving average and high-volume zone), $78,000–$80,000 (medium-term bull-bear dividing line)

$BTC

Order Entry Points and Trading Strategies

Long (Conservative): Gradually build long positions in the $68,500–$69,500 range, with stop-loss below $68,000. First target at $71,500, second at $73,000. This zone has been tested multiple times as a solid support, with relatively stable chip structure.

Long (Aggressive): If the price firmly stays above $72,000 with sustained volume, consider light long entries, with a stop-loss at $71,000 and targets between $73,500–$75,000. Close attention should be paid to ETF fund flow signals.

Short-term Short: When encountering resistance and pulling back in the $72,000–$73,000 zone, consider light short positions, with a stop-loss above $73,500 and targets at $70,000–$70,500. The current price near the $70,000 psychological level warrants caution; if it cannot hold this level, further decline toward the $68,000 liquidation warning line is possible.
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