#Gate广场四月发帖挑战

Trump’s latest threat—Is another opportunity for bears coming?

Yesterday, the US and Iran reached a ceasefire agreement through Pakistan’s mediation of 10 recommendations, including the withdrawal of US forces from the Middle East and allowing Iran to develop uranium enrichment technology. However, as expected, “that man” Trump has backtracked again!

In local time on April 8, US President Trump said that all US naval vessels, aircraft, military personnel, and equipment will remain around Iran until a “real agreement” is reached and fully implemented. He also warned that if the agreement is not carried out, “fire operations” will be launched, with a force and scale far beyond anything before. In addition, US Secretary of Defense Hegseth said that Iran must give up its stockpile of highly enriched uranium, otherwise the US will “get it.”

On the other side, in response to Israel’s bombing of Lebanon, Iran has again shut down the Strait of Hormuz. On the 8th, only 4 ships were allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, the fewest day since April. Before the start of Iran’s war, more than 100 ships passed through the Strait every day.

Although there has been no direct fighting, relations between the two sides have returned to a tense situation—so is it another opportunity for bears, and how should we position ourselves going forward?

At present, although both the US and Iran have stated that they will participate in the negotiations scheduled to be held on the 11th in Islamabad, the probability of them “reaching an agreement” is very low. First, the two sides have not even reached consensus on the very basis for negotiations. Previously, it was reported that Trump explicitly said that Iran’s “10-point plan” was a “feasible basis” for talks; however, today White House press secretary Leavitt said that “Iran’s 10 recommendations are basically written by ChatGPT, and President Trump didn’t even look at them before throwing them into the trash.” Second, the two sides’ core demands are far apart: Iran’s war reparations, the US withdrawing from the Middle East, and developing uranium enrichment technology are all things the US absolutely cannot accept. So the next step is to position ourselves based on the expectation that negotiations break down and the conflict escalates. Specifically:

【Crude Oil Market】

Hormuz Strait risk becoming the norm—bottom-fishing in the short term as the main strategy

Iran has again blocked the Strait of Hormuz. Although there are various views about the region’s current capacity, it is undisputed that capacity is lower than before the war. The Strait handles about 20%-21% of the world’s seaborne crude oil transport. If the blockade continues, oil prices are expected to rise further, so going long should be the main approach.

Current price: 96.5

Direction: Long

Support level: 91

Resistance level: 100

【Stock Market】Asset divergence: safe-haven and risk assets sharply split

The conflict has caused global stock markets to shake, but sector differentiation is significant, reflecting a re-pricing of “structural risks.”

Energy, defense, and gold stocks strengthen against the trend‌：For example, US shale oil companies are expected to see free cash flow increase by $63 billion, becoming an important source of funding for Trump’s camp.

‌Risk assets such as technology, consumption, and aviation face pressure‌：High inflation and expectations of slower growth suppress valuations, and the Nasdaq saw a notable pullback in the early stage of the conflict.

【Gold Market】

High oil prices raise global inflation expectations, forcing the Fed to delay rate cuts. Even with support from favorable Non-Farm payroll data, voices in the market calling for rate hikes have appeared, putting downward pressure on gold prices. In the short term, short-selling is the main approach.

Current price: 4755

Direction: Short

Support level: 4550

Resistance level: 4900

【Bitcoin Market】

Although Bitcoin’s price action today is relatively independent, if the conflict continues to escalate later—oil prices soar, lifting global inflation expectations and forcing the Fed to delay rate cuts, and risk assets fall—then BTC is unlikely to be “exempt” either. In the near term, short positions still remain the main strategy.

Current price: 71150

Direction: Short

Support level: 69500

Resistance level: 72700

How do you think the future trajectory of the US-Iran conflict will unfold? Will there be more fighting? And how do you plan to position yourself? Audience friends, leave a comment and interact with the little money god!