#Gate广场四月发帖挑战

A 40-Day Review of the Cryptocurrency Market Performance During the US-Iran Conflict—Gradual Immunity to the Warfire

On the first day of the US-Iran ceasefire agreement, new developments arose: Israel bombed Lebanon, and Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz in response. Global financial markets experienced another major shock. However, we found that the volatility in the crypto market has seemed to diminish this time. So far, Bitcoin has only slightly fallen by 0.9%, closing at $70,948. Why is the crypto market avoiding the warfire? Let’s take a look.

First, let’s review Bitcoin’s performance during major escalations since the outbreak of the US-Iran conflict:

February 28, 2026: The US and Israel launched an “Epic Fury” military strike against Iran. Bitcoin plummeted nearly 6% within 45 minutes, dropping from about $70,000 to $63,038, triggering over $515 million in long liquidation.

→ Market role: The “only outlet” bearing global weekend liquidity pressure

March 1, 2026: Iran launched a counterattack called “True Commitment-4,” attacking Israeli and US military bases. Bitcoin briefly declined but stabilized around $64,500, with intraday volatility under 3%.

→ Market learning effect: Diminished reaction

March 3, 2026: The US military acknowledged the death of six soldiers. Market sentiment did not significantly worsen; Bitcoin oscillated back up to $66,200, indicating that “casualty confirmation” was no longer a new negative factor.

March 5, 2026: Iran announced full control of the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude oil surged past $120 per barrel. Bitcoin moved against the trend, rising to $67,800, with some funds beginning to view it as a hedge amid “collapse of fiat trust.”

March 9, 2026: Iran claimed to have captured US soldiers, which the Pentagon denied. Bitcoin fluctuated narrowly between $67,500 and $68,300, with marginal geopolitical news impact further weakening.

April 8, 2026: Israel launched airstrikes in Lebanon, and the Strait of Hormuz was closed again. Bitcoin maintained above $68,000, with no signs of panic selling, even attracting some safe-haven capital inflows.

→ Signifies the market entering a “new normal”: Under normalized conflicts, BTC gradually demonstrates structural hedging potential.

Looking back, it’s clear that Bitcoin’s performance during the 2026 geopolitical conflicts has undergone a qualitative change—from “flash crashes” to “dampening” to “counter-movement.” Its price logic has shifted from an early risk asset sell-off mode to a digital hedge function under specific conditions (such as pressure on fiat systems and increased capital controls). Bitcoin has evolved from merely a risk asset into an investment target with its own intrinsic value, establishing its own market rhythm. Additionally, continuous inflows of institutional funds (like BlackRock ETFs) are becoming a “volatility buffer,” mitigating short-term shocks.