“TACO Trading” — Trump Always Chickens Out, Wall Street Has Tailored a Trading Strategy for Trump.

The logic is simple: Trump issues tough threats, and the market falls first; once Trump pulls back, the market rises again. So the smart move is— the fiercer he is, the more you buy.

This is probably the most honest market analysis in recent years.

The traditional geopolitical logic goes like this: conflict escalation = risk assets drop, safe-haven assets rise. But “TACO Trading” completely flips this logic—because everyone knows Trump’s script: post a menacing tweet, wait for the market to shake off its nerves, and then “pause out of goodwill” to secure negotiation leverage. After this play has been performed enough times, the audience learns to buy at the height of the action, and sell when he “backs off.”

For the market, this is a good thing—predictable unpredictability is far easier to deal with than a real black swan. But for Trump himself, it’s awkward: his “maximum pressure” has already been priced by the market as “bluster.” He thinks he holds nuclear-level bargaining chips, but in reality, the market has already discounted that variable to zero.

Of course, this also means that when the time really comes to be tense, nobody takes it seriously anymore. Crying “Wolf is coming” too many times, and when the wolf finally arrives, the market may not react in time. When that moment comes, the backlash of “TACO Trading” could be more intense than any geopolitical conflict. #Gate广场四月发帖挑战 $TNSR