#Gate广场四月发帖挑战 Gold suffers a "limit down" move! The Federal Reserve minutes hawkish + ceasefire negotiations break down, tonight's CPI may become the final judgment?

Key point: Yesterday, the gold market experienced extreme volatility again, with an intraday surge to $4,858. In the evening, the Fed minutes signaled a rate hike, coupled with cracks in the US-Iran ceasefire agreement, causing gold prices to plummet over $150 from the high, erasing all gains made earlier in the week. Early morning ceasefire negotiations showed signs of breaking down again, with the Strait of Hormuz reopening only to close immediately. On the technical side, a stagnation signal appeared on the 4-hour chart, and the daily long upper shadow bearish candle indicates a bearish outlook, but there is strong support around the 4670-4680 area. Today's trading will focus on high selling and low buying, with particular attention to tonight’s US March CPI data release.

Fundamental analysis: Fed hawkish, ceasefire talks "fizzle out" at the first shot
1. Fed Minutes: Hawkish tone emerges quietly The Fed's March meeting minutes released early Thursday Beijing time delivered a heavy blow—the group of Fed officials supporting rate hikes is expanding. The minutes show that some participants believe the FOMC's future rate decisions should incorporate a "dual description," reflecting that "if inflation remains above target, raising rates may be appropriate." Compared to only a few officials supporting hikes in January, by March this group has grown to "many." The minutes also reveal a dilemma within the Fed—"many" still see rate cuts as part of their baseline expectation, while "the majority" worry that prolonged Middle East conflicts could severely damage economic growth, indicating a need for more rate cuts to hedge. Fed Vice Chair also pointed out that rates are roughly in the neutral zone and are prepared to respond to market changes, but uncertainties in trade policy and geopolitical tensions pose upside risks to inflation. The core logic behind the Fed's collective hawkish shift is—rising oil prices keep inflation high, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts push inflation expectations higher, making rate cuts by year-end nearly impossible.

2. US-Iran ceasefire: cracks appear immediately after initiation "The first shot of the ceasefire hasn't even been fired, and the gunfire has already started." The US-Iran temporary ceasefire took effect for only a few hours before Israel launched its largest airstrike since the conflict began in Lebanon. The Strait of Hormuz experienced a dramatic change—initially open after the ceasefire announcement, but Iran soon closed it again, increasing geopolitical uncertainty. Impact on gold: The ceasefire agreement showed cracks on its first day, meaning the safe-haven premium of gold will not easily dissipate in the short term. Any worsening news could trigger a rebound in gold prices.

3. Today's biggest focus: US March CPI tonight at 20:30, the US Department of Labor will release the March Consumer Price Index (CPI). Driven by rising oil prices due to Middle East conflicts, market expectations are that the March CPI year-over-year increase could jump from 2.4% to between 3.0% and 3.5%, with core CPI also expected to stay around 3.0%. If CPI data exceeds expectations: Short-term: further reinforce Fed rate hike expectations, strengthen the dollar, and pressure gold prices. Medium-term: if stagflation risks are confirmed, gold’s safe-haven attributes may re-emerge as panic spreads. This is a "double-edged sword," with volatility likely to spike before and after the data release. Investors should control their positions carefully.

Technical analysis: Long upper shadow at high levels, strong support at low levels, intense bulls and bears battle
On the 4-hour chart, the upward move from the 4099 low shows a 5-wave structure: 4098.69→4602.53 as wave 1, 4602.53→4351.29 as wave 2, 4351.29→4800.58 as wave 3, 4800.58→4553.81 as wave 4, with the current rise from 4553.81 being wave 5. After yesterday’s surge and pullback, it’s necessary to confirm whether wave 5 has completed. The key level to watch is 4607 (the starting point of four consecutive bullish candles); if this level is broken, it may indicate the entire upward structure is invalidated, and the market could turn into a correction. However, from the 4-hour chart, intraday support is clearly seen around 4680-4700. If this support holds and is not broken, the price will not immediately fall back to 4607; only a decisive break below 4680 would lead to a move toward 4607. On the 1-hour chart, the current price near 4700 has filled the gap from yesterday’s gap-up opening, forming a large bullish candle, with MACD green bars shrinking and KDJ forming a golden cross, indicating a short-term rebound is likely. However, overhead resistance is strong, with a zone around 4760-4780.

Today’s trading strategy: High selling and low buying, waiting quietly for tonight’s CPI data.

Core logic: The Fed minutes signal a hawkish stance, with policy bearish for gold. The daily long upper shadow candle + 4-hour bearish divergence clearly indicate a bearish signal. Although ceasefire cracks are numerous, risk premiums have already partially dissipated, making it unlikely to provide strong support. If CPI exceeds expectations, gold will be further pressured downward; if not, a significant rebound could push prices back toward 4800.

Specific level suggestions:
- Short position: Lightly short on rebounds to 4760-4780.
- Long position: If support at 4680-4700 holds, consider a small long position.

CPI data reaction plan:
- If CPI significantly exceeds expectations: Hawkish rate hike expectations intensify, gold may fall below 4670, follow the trend to short, targeting 4620-4600.
- If CPI meets expectations: Range-bound trading around 4700-4780, operate within the zone.
- If CPI is unexpectedly below expectations: Reignite rate cut expectations, gold could break above 4780, follow the trend to long, targeting 4850-4880, with a stop at 4760.

Summary:
Yesterday’s "limit down" in gold was a classic lesson for all traders: how high prices rise before the news hits, and how sharply they fall afterward. The Fed minutes signaled a hawkish shift, and cracks appeared immediately after ceasefire negotiations began, causing a retreat of over $150 from resistance above 4850. The daily long upper shadow candle, 4-hour divergence signals, and policy bearishness all point to a clear bearish trend. However, support around 4680-4700 has held for a long time, and the market may oscillate narrowly during the day, waiting quietly for the CPI data to guide the next move.