The Link Between Hormuz and Bitcoin Means “Game Over” for XRP? This Is What Analysts Say

Selat Hormuz, a vital route for about 20% of the world’s oil flow, has now become the center of a broader debate that goes beyond geopolitics alone. The situation there has brought Bitcoin and XRP into a real test of how crypto assets work when conflicts break out.

Amid a fragile ceasefire in April, some reports say Iran is demanding a tariff of around US$1 per barrel from tankers that pass through the strait. Payments are reportedly requested in Bitcoin or yuan, adding a new dimension to how sanctions and trade routes intersect.

Bitcoin Enters the World’s Most Strategic Oil Route

Bitcoin quickly became the main focus of this issue. Based on the reports, the IRGC enforces payment rules with a very short time window, making transactions difficult to trace under Western sanctions.

For supertankers, this cost could reach US$2,000,000, or about 281 BTC.

Even so, some people still doubt this news. Arthur Hayes openly questions the claim, saying he will only believe it after seeing truly verifiable on-chain transactions tied to specific vessels.

Until then, he thinks it could just be a rumor or a message—not reality.

So far, there is no clear on-chain evidence related to the payments. Even so, the narrative alone has pushed Bitcoin’s price back above US$70,000.

This event reinforces a growing view. During crises, Bitcoin acts as a neutral transaction settlement tool and operates outside traditional financial systems.

The XRP Story: Built for Peace, Not for Crisis

At the same time, this situation has sparked debate within the XRP community. Analyst Fran de Olza says the narrative about Bitcoin is shifting again.

According to him, the narrative has moved from retail payments to a store of value, and now toward use for settling large transactions, such as those mentioned in Hormuz.

He points out that terms like “neutral settlement” and “borderless money” are now often used—even by Bitcoin supporters.

However, he claims that XRP has already been in this space earlier, with years of development focused on institutional payments and cross-border settlement.

De Olza suggests that if a new global financial agreement is formed—similar to a modern Bretton Woods system—many people might realize they are actually describing XRP’s role, even if they think it will be Bitcoin that takes it over.

However, another analyst offers a more realistic perspective. Bitcoin’s strength in this case lies in its resistance to censorship.

Iran’s main priority is not efficiency, but rather bypassing systems like SWIFT and the US dollar directly. This is why Bitcoin is so useful in scenarios focused on sovereignty.

Conversely, XRP was indeed created for a regulated financial system operating at large scale during stable times. XRP prioritizes institutional settlement, compliance, and integration with banking infrastructure.

Bitcoin handles urgent, high-pressure situations, while XRP is designed to support long-term financial pathways. Both can succeed without having to replace each other.

In 2026, the crypto market will become increasingly multichain, with Bitcoin serving as a reserve and a crisis tool, while XRP focuses on institutional settlement.

Right now, while tankers wait and analysts debate, one thing is clear. Crypto is no longer just a speculative market. Now, crypto assets are beginning to become an important part of how power, trade, and finance operate in a fragmented global system.

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