Research Report Highlights | Goldman Sachs: Copper prices decline quarter by quarter throughout the year, with a surplus of up to 490k tons by 2026

Goldman Sachs released a research report on April 6, adjusting short-term copper price expectations but maintaining a firm long-term bullish outlook. Due to the impact of energy price shocks causing a 0.4 percentage point slowdown in global GDP growth, it lowered the 2026 refined copper demand growth rate from 2.0% to 1.6%, while raising the global refined copper surplus from 380k tons to 490k tons. Excess inventories will be concentrated outside the U.S. market, pushing supply and demand in that region toward balance.

Based on this, Goldman Sachs lowered its 2026 average LME copper price forecast from $12,850 per ton to $12,650 per ton, expecting $12,700 per ton in the second quarter, with a gradual decline throughout the year, possibly falling back to a fair value of $12,000 per ton in the second half. The current futures price is $12,502 per ton, slightly below the forecast.

Goldman Sachs pointed out that copper’s strategic importance has increased, as it is deeply linked to power grids, new energy, and energy security, reducing cycle sensitivity, so demand adjustments are smaller than those for aluminum. On the supply side, the Democratic Republic of Congo accounts for 15% of global copper mine production, relies on Hormuz Strait transportation, with inventories limited to three months, and prolonged disruptions could impact output.

In the long term, Goldman Sachs maintains a target of $15,000 per ton for copper in 2035, predicting that power grids and energy infrastructure will drive 60% of global copper demand growth before 2030. However, it warns that current prices are already above the $11,100 per ton estimate supported by fundamentals, and economic deterioration could trigger a correction.