Gold Prices Drop 8% in a Month, Is Profit Still Possible?

Gold prices are experiencing a decline over the past month.

Citing Trading Economics at 15:20 WIB, gold prices fell 0.27% to US$ 4,750.15 per troy ounce. Over the past month, gold prices have also already dropped by 8.25%.

Even so, gold prices are still able to strengthen by 10.01% since the beginning of the year, also known as year to date (YTD).

President Commissioner of HFX International Futures, Sutopo Widodo, sees that, in the market situation that has been evolving up to today, gold is indeed in a consolidation phase after setting its all-time highest record at the beginning of the year.

“Uncertainty about the continuation of the ceasefire in the Middle East and anticipation of data on inflation in Amerika Serikat (AS) create a complex narrative for precious metals,” he said to Kontan on Friday (10/4/2026).

Amid current conditions, investors can also set up a strategy of buying gradually or dollar cost averaging (DCA) in gold investments.

The price correction from the peak of around US$ 5,500 per troy ounce toward the US$ 4,700 area also provides a safe space for investors to rebuild their positions.

“This decline is not a sign that the uptrend has ended, but a healthy normalization amid easing oil risk premiums,” he said.

Gold’s appeal, now and going forward, remains strong due to two main pillars. First, the weakening of the US dollar index to the level of 99 provides fundamental support for global gold prices.

Second, although a temporary ceasefire eases tensions, the market still considers the agreement very fragile.

“As long as strategic issues such as the opening of the Strait of Hormuz are not yet resolved and military operations in Lebanon are still ongoing, demand for safe haven assets (safe haven) will remain maintained whenever prices fall,” he said.

Sutopo projects that gold will be at the level of US$ 4,800 - US$ 5,000 per troy ounce until the end of the first half of 2026.

Gold will also test the psychological level of US$ 5,000 per troy ounce again in line with certainty about the direction of interest rate policy by The Fed.

“If March inflation shows signs of cooling, gold has great potential to break through the upper bound of the current consolidation before entering July,” he said.

For the end of 2026, gold prices are expected to be in the range of US$ 5,150 - US$ 5,500 per troy ounce.

“The bullish scenario is at US$ 6,000 per troy ounce if there is new escalation, or if the world’s central banks again increase their gold reserves massively,” he explained.

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