From a technical perspective, the mid- and long-term trends of $BTC

It's been a while since I analyzed the market purely from a technical standpoint. Recently, I've been busy with short-term contracts and altcoins. Today, I will analyze the current bear market stage and future trends purely based on technical analysis.

First, let's talk about the overall direction. This bear market is not over yet. According to historical patterns, the true bottom usually occurs about a year and a half before the next halving. This time, it’s most likely around the end of this year. Plus, on-chain data (such as the cost basis still being above 40k) indicates that we are still far from the actual bottom; the bear market has only completed about half of its cycle.

Therefore, the kind of hype online that says "a little rise means the bull is here" can be unfollowed; we are discussing a different level of analysis.

Next, let's talk about the medium-term trend, which is the current consolidation after the second wave of downward trend. Right now, BTC looks very strong, but this strength is mostly fake—mainly driven by short squeezes, meaning there are too many traders shorting contracts, preventing a sharp drop.

This situation is common in bear markets—there's a strong rebound that makes you think a reversal is happening, but in the end, it turns back down. This has happened in previous cycles; it’s nothing new.

The key resistance level is around 80k (roughly between 80k and 83k). Many people are trapped and have their cost basis in this zone.

In a bear market, prices generally don’t easily allow most people to break even. So once the price approaches this range, there will be heavy selling pressure. Because such market conditions often first trigger a short squeeze, wiping out those who shorted early, before turning back down. Therefore, approaching 80,000 would be an ideal level to open a short position.