Regarding the outlook for the next phase, let’s summarize. Yesterday morning, I arranged multiple long positions in Ethereum and told everyone to hold them for a longer time. I also clearly pointed out that CPI would lead the market to rise first and then fall. During the night, I shorted Ethereum around 73000 and 2250. It dropped, then rebounded back up. Before going to sleep, I set the final short level for SOL around 85.7. I had a short for ETH at 2253, and I also shorted BTC at 73100—both currently in floating profit. Everyone can reduce positions to hedge and still gamble on the move down: BTC could drop by as much as 500 points, ETH by 20 points, and SOL by 1 point.

Overall, things went fairly smoothly. The market has been so quiet for too long. Right now, after news that peace talks are underway, the market is starting a crazy rebound. This current position is located at the lower edge of the weekly-level downward trendline.

Yesterday’s “rhythm” was probably something many people watched: in March, contract-to-spot trading volumes—various institutions are all lowering their numbers. And liquidity—everyone should also have noticed recently—it’s unusual. The candlestick movement isn’t smooth; there are jumps, and if it can’t reach support or resistance, it pulls back and rebounds early. This is all caused by insufficient liquidity.

Has the bull market returned? I don’t think so. In the past, the market’s pricing power was based on consensus. Now, the pricing power is in the hands of a Twitter post from an 80-year-old man. Many people have already stopped playing his game. Market-making institutions have already exited and are waiting for a truly confirmed trend before re-entering. So what’s left in the market now is retail traders and gamblers.

As for the war: over the next year, the strait should be in a state of constant stoppage and shutdown and limited flow. No matter how they negotiate, it won’t be negotiated well—because both sides’ demands, and even the U.S.’s real demands, are not actually about stopping the war. I’ve talked about this multiple times in my livestreams. In the end, each side will announce that they’ve won, yet there is no winner. The conflict continues.

High oil prices align with the U.S.’s current interests. Yesterday, there was also a mysterious phenomenon where oil, the stock market, gold, and crypto all rose together. At 12 o’clock, Trump posted that if negotiations fail, they will intensify strikes. The aircraft carrier hasn’t been withdrawn, and the troops haven’t been withdrawn. The U.S. really hasn’t prepared to fight a ground war, and they only want to act like bullies and use someone’s hand to blockade the strait. Overall, the economy and the market have not yet become numb to the war news. And there’s no sign that a large amount of capital is flowing into the crypto market, nor expectations for quantitative easing and rate cuts, nor any systemic, long-term positive outlook for crypto.

It’s simply that the main players want to go up. Whether it’s good news or bad news, they still want it to go up anyway. What makes this game anti-human is that it features “pulling up out of thin air,” and good news can lead to a sudden plunge. Long-term and short-term trends confuse people and leave them feeling muddled. Newcomers should think more: is the entry price for your long-term position truly appropriate? And can you accept long stop-losses when playing a long-term game of upside and downside? Or can you try accumulating funds with short-term trades?

The charm of short-term trading is that you put a stop-loss on every trade, and once there’s profit, you take it—stop losses are triggered immediately when you’re in floating loss. I’ve been livestreaming and teaching newcomers short-term contracts and contract strategies for years. Up until we reach the right position, I’ll lay out long-term positions and spot. Basically, most beginners can’t hold their positions—that’s because your own position size isn’t strong enough. When you’re holding a pocket full of floating profits, then you can try to gamble on trend continuation and go after bigger long-term gains.

Overall, whether you’re currently in floating loss or just starting out, focus on experience first: small stop-losses, big returns. My livestream may not be suitable for everyone. But if you keep losing, I still suggest you don’t guess whether it will go up or down, and don’t use market orders. Enter at support and resistance levels—go long or short there, set a small stop-loss, and run once you hit your exit. Only enter when liquidity is sufficient. Trade sideways—watch and wait. Learn how to be flat.

Alright, overall I’m still bearish. The picture shows my dynamics from yesterday. I will continue with this line of thinking: even if we break out, it will be a false breakout, and we will come back down. There isn’t much room upward. Be careful about today’s negotiation news—don’t get trapped by long positions. BTC’s most extreme bait for longs is around 79500. And it won’t be that we never get opportunities to go long: if BTC breaks 73300 and then gives a pullback, we can still go long.

You must clearly distinguish the trend: in an uptrend, pullbacks can be an opportunity to go long. Yesterday, I arranged multiple pullback longs—but even so, at the top we still need to gamble. If your thinking isn’t clear, it will drive many new traders into despair. In the short term it looks bullish; in the medium term it chooses the opposite; in the long term it looks bearish—this is the current stage.

Alright everyone, have a great weekend. Go out, get some sun, read a book, and take a walk—spend time with your family. Life isn’t only about trading; there’s also living. Only when you truly love life can you stay filled with fighting spirit.

Get some rest. At 9 tonight, we’ll start the subscription livestream for teaching. See you tonight, brothers! #Gate上线Pre-IPOs