#Gate广场四月发帖挑战 Bitcoin's weekly increase exceeds 9%, is it still a trap or a dawn?

Bitcoin and Ethereum jointly strengthen, Middle East ceasefire expectations boost global risk appetite, combined with easing U.S. core inflation pressures, the crypto market follows the US stock market in a synchronized rebound. Short sellers facing large-scale squeeze amid continuous upward push, market leverage betting intensifies.
But overall fear sentiment has not yet dissipated; weekend negotiations' progress will determine the short-term direction.

Strategy Analysis
BTC Short-term Strategy
Long position entry points (breakout follow-up):
Buy after a confirmed breakout and stabilization above $73,300
Target points: first target $74,000, second target $75,300
Stop-loss point: fall below $71,800 for short strategy (resistance pullback) Entry point: $72,900 - $73,300 when rebound is blocked Target points: first target $71,500, second target $70,467 - $70,500
Stop-loss point: effectively stabilize above $74,000
Operational principles: reasonably control leverage, keep position size under 10%, strictly set take profit and stop loss, avoid chasing highs and selling lows.

ETH Short-term Strategy
Long position entry points (breakout follow-up):
Buy after volume breakout and stabilization above $2,270
Target points: first target $2,300 - $2,320, second target $2,344
Stop-loss point: fall below $2,225
Short strategy (resistance pullback):
Entry point: $2,245 - $2,260 when rebound is blocked
Target points: first target $2,180 - $2,200, second target $2,150 - $2,165
Stop-loss point: effectively stabilize above $2,275

Intra-day, focus on high sell and low buy, wait for clear signals before re-entering:
Weekend ceasefire negotiations are sensitive, reduce positions
Shorting under negative interest rates should consider holding costs

Market Analysis

Bitcoin
Bitcoin's current price is about $72,800, trading within a range of $70,428 to $73,450 in 24 hours. The key short-term support level this weekend is at $69,922, resistance at $73,450. Overall, it is in a "high volatility transition period"—shifting from war risk premium to ceasefire risk premium. The first key resistance and support:
First support: $70,428 (core support on 4-hour chart), holding this maintains short-term upward momentum.
Second support: $69,922 (short-term critical support), a break below this will directly test the $68,000 region.
First resistance: $73,450 (short-term critical resistance), a valid breakout requires volume confirmation.
Second resistance: $74,000 (main resistance zone), closing above this would be a strong bullish signal.

Ethereum
Ethereum's current price is around $2,240, with a 24-hour increase of about 1.5%, fluctuating within the $2,200-$2,270 range. The hourly chart shows ETH has broken through the $2,150 resistance formed by a contracting triangle, indicating bulls are gradually regaining control. The overall trend remains range-bound, but short-term momentum is improving. Key support and resistance:
First support: $2,200 (critical support zone), where a daily correction can be effectively supported.
Core support: $2,156-$2,165 (EMA50 support + 50% Fibonacci retracement), a break below tests $2,120.
First resistance: $2,250-$2,270 (key breakout confirmation level), a valid breakout and stabilization will open upward space.
Second resistance: $2,320-$2,350 (mid-term target zone).
BTC's indicator structure is "daily strong + 4-hour warning," leaning towards high-level oscillation; ETH is "4-hour recovery + daily weakness," at the end of volatility contraction, weekend news could be a catalyst for direction choice.