The Iran-U.S. talks are the key indicator for tonight’s market trend, with two possible outcomes affecting the trading action:

First, the negotiations ease. Risk-off sentiment cools down, Big Yellow and Little White will be pressured to drop back, crude oil will plunge on the bearish news, and funds will flow out of safe-haven assets into risk markets. Big Pie and Second Pie will rise accordingly—this is an opportunity to unwind the short positions on Big Yellow and crude oil.

Second, the negotiations break down. Geopolitical risk escalates, safe-haven funds move in, Big Yellow and Little White will be quickly surged, crude oil will rise at the same time, and market risk appetite declines. Big Pie and Second Pie will most likely be sold off and pull back; at this point, long positions in gold and crude oil can be held steady—there’s no need to rush to take action.

Tonight’s market is driven by the news—avoid blindly chasing rallies or panic selling. Positions that get trapped should be gradually unwound and unwind accordingly based on the outcome.