The stalemate in the Strait of Hormuz continues—no ships passed through on Sunday, and thousands of vessels remain trapped in the Persian Gulf

The US and Iran announced a ceasefire that has entered its fifth day, but the navigation situation in the Strait of Hormuz is far from the “reopening” claimed by the US. According to the latest tracking data from Morgan Stanley, the number of ships passing through the strait on Sunday (April 12) was zero, and on Saturday there were only three ships. Shipping data shows that three supertankers passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday, seemingly the first vessels to leave the Persian Gulf since the ceasefire agreement was reached. But the “zero passage” on Sunday once again casts a shadow over the strait’s prospects for reopening.

1. From zero to three to zero again: navigation data swings dramatically

Navigation data after the ceasefire agreement took effect shows sharp fluctuations. According to data from vessel tracking platforms, only 2 ships passed through the strait in the first two days after the ceasefire. Then, on Saturday, 3 supertankers passed through, but on Sunday the figure went back to zero. Compared with the normal daily flow of 120 to 130 ships before the war, this is not even a fraction.

The conditions for passage permits are becoming increasingly strict and opaque. Windward’s analysis indicates that the conditions for passage permits through the Strait of Hormuz are becoming more stringent; approval standards often change; and multiple ships encounter denied clearance or have to wait for approval. Congestion west of the strait continues to worsen, and there are now more than 50 container ships stranded.

2. Iran’s “conditional opening”: radio warnings and disputes over transit fees

According to reports from multiple media outlets, a sailor trapped in the Persian Gulf shared a recording of an onboard radio transmission with reporters. In the recording, Iran’s Navy broadcast on the public emergency channel VHF16, saying: “The Strait of Hormuz is closing. All ships must obtain explicit permission from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to transit. Unauthorized ships will be destroyed.”

At the same time, Iran’s Parliamentary National Security Commission has put forward a bill calling for transit fees to be charged to ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. The Financial Times reported that Iran wants to charge $1 per barrel, and the payment can only be made in cryptocurrencies or RMB. Trump was strongly displeased; on the evening of the 9th, he posted two posts on Truth Social firing off, saying, “This had better not be true—if it is, they should stop immediately!”

3. A backlog of 1,000 ships trapped, with global supply chains under pressure

According to statistics from multiple shipping data platforms, there are currently about 600 to 800 large deep-sea vessels stranded within the Persian Gulf, including more than 400 oil tankers, 34 liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) carriers, and 19 liquefied natural gas (LNG) carriers. Germany’s shipping giant Hapag-Lloyd revealed that only for its own fleet, 6 ships are trapped there, with extra weekly costs reaching $50 million to $60 million.

Shipping companies generally adopt alternative routes via the Cape of Good Hope. The usual route between Europe and the Gulf region, which takes about 25 days, is being extended to about 41 days, and transportation costs increase by about 25%. Several major shipping firms are taking a wait-and-see approach and have not yet resumed navigation through the strait.

4. The UK convenes an international meeting to discuss “free passage”

In response to the stalemate in the Strait of Hormuz, the UK has convened meetings with multiple countries to discuss countermeasures. On the 2nd of this month, the UK held an online international meeting to discuss restoring navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. It was hosted by Foreign Minister Cooper, with representatives from more than 40 countries and international organizations attending, including international maritime organizations and the EU. According to reports, the UK will convene another international meeting next week to discuss how to restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz without paying Iran “transit fees.”

The EU has also made clear that it opposes charging fees. Anwar Anouni, a spokesperson for the European Union’s foreign affairs, cited international law, stating that the Strait of Hormuz, like other sea lanes, is a public resource for all humankind, and navigation should be free and should not be subject to any fees or tariffs.

5. The US dilemma: pushing for opening by force or tacitly accepting control?

Kevin Hassett, director of the White House National Economic Council, believes the Strait of Hormuz could resume normal navigation within the next two months, and oil transportation may return to normal. However, Iran’s hardline posture and its passage control measures are putting this optimistic forecast to a severe test.

Trump previously claimed that the Strait of Hormuz “will reopen soon, and it will reopen no matter what.” But in the face of Iran’s transit-fee plan and strict approval requirements, the US side’s “backup plan” has not been announced. The US is facing a dilemma: pushing for “freedom of navigation” may trigger a direct military conflict with Iran, while tacitly allowing Iran’s control mechanism would mean making strategic concessions over who controls the strait.

From blockade to “conditional opening,” Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz is being systematized. Sunday saw zero ships pass through; there are constant variables in the approval process; and thousands of ships are still trapped in the Persian Gulf—while the US claims “the strait is reopening,” the data gives a different answer. This contest over an international energy choke point has already gone beyond a simple ceasefire agreement, becoming a strategic battleground in the US-Iran struggle for regional dominance.
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