Shorting DOGE this weekend? I'm just waiting for its "sentiment to cool off."

#My weekend trading plan
Many people like to buy DOGE over the weekend, betting on Musk's tweets or sudden FOMO from the Dogecoin community. But my approach is the opposite — this weekend I opened a short position on DOGE. Why? Because the more everyone is betting on good news, the easier it is to see a "buy the rumor, sell the news" reversal.

1. News vacuum period
There are no major known DOGE-related events this weekend, and Musk has been relatively quiet lately. Without catalysts, DOGE's price mainly follows BTC, and its volatility tends to be greater than BTC's. As soon as BTC dips slightly, DOGE can easily fall even more.

2. Technical weakness
From the chart, DOGE's previous attempts to rally were all pushed back, with highs gradually decreasing and lows slowly shifting downward. A typical pattern of oscillating decline. Under this structure, the probability of success for long positions is much lower than for shorts.

3. My trading details
I opened a partial margin short position, keeping the position relatively light and reserving enough room for liquidation. After opening, DOGE dipped slightly, and I currently have some unrealized profits.
My weekend strategy is:

· Use the opening price as a reference for stop-loss; as long as it doesn't stabilize back above that level, hold the short
· If DOGE suddenly surges (e.g., over 5%), I will close half of the position first, since weekend spikes are common and there's no need to fight them
· If DOGE slowly declines, I will let the profits run and gradually move the take-profit line downward

No stories over the weekend, just price action
DOGE has plenty of believers, but trading isn't about faith. Over the weekend, I won't be glued to Musk's tweets; I focus on actual price behavior. If DOGE breaks below a key minor support level, I might even consider adding a little more to my position on a rebound (as long as it doesn't exceed my risk limits).

Shorting isn't about bearishness on DOGE; at this moment, I believe the probability of a downward move is higher than upward. Wishing everyone a calm weekend and disciplined trading, not swayed by emotions.