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Today's News Highlights and Operational Ideas (Follow-up recommended)
1. US-Iran Negotiations (Key Today)
• Yesterday (11th) talks in Islamabad, major disagreements, no agreement reached
• US demands Iran fully open the Strait and abandon enriched uranium; Iran refuses to concede
• Market sentiment turns bearish → Crypto and crude oil sharply drop
2. US Inflation and Federal Reserve
• March CPI up 3.3% year-on-year (highest in nearly 4 years), core CPI +0.2% month-on-month
• Inflation exceeds expectations → June rate cut probability drops significantly (only 35%)
• Fed monitors banks' private credit risk exposure, financial risk concerns intensify
3. US Fiscal Policy
• March deficit $164.1 billion (above expectations)
• US national debt surpasses $39 trillion
4. Crypto Regulation/Institutions#
• Hong Kong issues first stablecoin licenses (HSBC, CorePoint Financial)
• US Treasury urges Congress to pass the "Clarity Act" to prevent crypto talent outflow
• Morgan Stanley BTC ETF net inflow of $210 million in one week
• Grayscale GBTC negative premium -3.2% (continuously narrowing)
3. Today's Trading Reference (Brief)
• Short-term: CPI + US-Iran talks collapse, double bearish signals, leaning bearish
• Support: BTC $70,500–$71,000; ETH –$2,180
• Resistance: BTC $73,000; ETH $2,280–$2,300