As expected, the US-Iran negotiations have collapsed, with both sides returning to their respective homes and seeking their own mothers on the 12th local time, after three rounds of talks that went nowhere. The Iranian Foreign Ministry stated that these negotiations took place after 40 days of imposed conflict and were conducted in an atmosphere full of distrust and suspicion. This was the longest negotiation in recent years, lasting nearly 25 hours. The two sides had serious disagreements on three key issues, which are easy to guess: first, control of the Strait of Hormuz; second, enriched uranium; and third, Iran’s proxy issues. These three points are definitely non-negotiable for both sides. During the negotiations, the Americans also made a probing move. According to US media reports, several US warships passed through the Strait of Hormuz on the 11th. This move was not coordinated with Iran and is the first since the outbreak of hostilities. The intention behind releasing this news was very clear: to show US strength and tell the world, “Look, Iran is scared. US warships are in the Strait of Hormuz, and they dare not block them.” They wanted to put on a show, but it backfired. In reality, it was just one destroyer, and Iran forced it to retreat. Iran directly told the US, “If you want to test us here, then we don’t need to talk. I’ll give you 30 minutes—get out of here.” The Americans obediently left. At this point, why are you still playing the carrot-and-stick game? Aren’t you just wasting time?

I mentioned during the live broadcast before that even if the US and Iran negotiate, they probably won’t reach an agreement in one go. Such high-level negotiations always require multiple rounds to reach a relatively balanced result. Initially, both sides will probably start by opening their big cards, then gradually retreating step by step, and then retreating even further. Who would show their hand right at the beginning?