#Gate广场四月发帖挑战 The Iran-U.S. war enters a tug-of-war negotiation, gold and crude oil consolidate at high levels

Fundamental outlook: In 2026, the Federal Reserve will still maintain an accommodative monetary policy, with major commodities such as gold, silver, copper, and aluminum remaining in a bull market explosion cycle. By December 2025, the Fed will cut interest rates again by 0.25 percentage points, lowering the federal funds rate to 3.5-3.75%. The balance sheet reduction will end in December, and there may be another rate cut. The long-term monetary policy remains accommodative, increasing liquidity.
【Brent Oil XBRUSD Strategy Analysis】The US and Israel continue airstrikes on Iran, escalating the war, with both sides attacking energy facilities. Iran blocks the Hormuz Strait. International crude oil opened at $120 per barrel on Monday. After entering negotiations, prices retraced to fill the gap, with attention on the $93-95 range for long positions, and a watchful eye on support below $90.
【Gold XAUUSD Strategy Analysis】Gold experienced a waterfall decline on 2026-1-30. Although the trading team issued risk warnings on the 27th-28th, noting that the sharp rise might lead to profit-taking adjustments, the overall decline exceeded expectations, reaching $1,000 and a 26% correction in the market. The team still believes gold is in a bull cycle; any pullback is an opportunity to re-enter. This week, gold continued to decline but remains above the 200-day moving average, with a low around $4,690-4,630. Long positions are preferred, with support at $4,500.
【Silver XAGUSD Strategy Analysis】Silver hit a new high of $120, up 300% over the past year. Compared to gold, its correction was more severe, halving to $73, with a 40% decline. Support below is at $70-67. If the daily candle closes positively, it can be considered for long positions, with stop-loss support below $60.