Wu's weekly macro indicators and analysis: Iran situation, U.S. March PPI, Federal Reserve Beige Book on economic conditions

Compilation: GaryMa Wu on Blockchain

Summary

Last week, U.S. March CPI rose 3.3% year-over-year, driven by energy prices, while Iran’s conflict went through a tense and dramatic turn—from an ultimatum to a fragile ceasefire and then to a breakdown in negotiations; this week continues to pay attention to Iran’s situation, as well as to the U.S. March PPI and the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book on economic conditions.

Last Week Review

The U.S. announced that the March 2026 Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 3.3% year-over-year, reaching a recent high in the current period, mainly driven by energy prices, with gasoline prices surging 21.2% month-on-month. Core CPI (excluding food and energy) rose 2.6% year-over-year. The data shows that the current rebound in inflation is mainly driven by energy, while core inflation remains relatively moderate.

For the week ending April 4, the U.S. initial jobless claims were 219,000, versus an expected 210,000. The final estimate for the annualized quarterly growth rate of U.S. Q4 real GDP was 0.5%, compared with an expected 0.7% and a prior figure of 0.70%. The final estimate for the annualized quarterly rate of the U.S. Q4 core PCE price index was 2.7%, matching expectations of 2.7% and the prior figure of 2.70%. In February, the U.S. core PCE price index rose 0.4% month-on-month, in line with expectations of 0.4% and the prior figure of 0.40%.

The U.S. consumer confidence index fell to 47.6 in April, down 10.7 from March, hitting the lowest level in history. Surveys show that due to rising energy prices and the Iran conflict, consumers’ inflation expectations have clearly increased; the inflation expectation for the next year rose to 4.8%, up 1 percentage point from March; the 5-year inflation expectation rose to 3.4%.

Iran’s conflict went through a tense and dramatic turn—from an ultimatum to a fragile ceasefire: with the U.S. and Iran initiating a temporary ceasefire on April 7 and conducting diplomatic back-and-forth in Islamabad, mediated by Pakistan, but because Iran refused to give ground on nuclear sanctions and troop-withdrawal conditions, negotiations fell into a serious deadlock on the 12th; the U.S. team withdrew, and the U.S. military reiterated that it could blockade the Strait of Hormuz at any time, pushing the situation again to the brink of full-scale war.

Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes: Middle East conflict amplifies two-way risks—rate hikes and rate cuts are both on the table.

China’s March 2026 CPI rose 1.0% year-over-year, below the expected 1.2%, down from the prior 1.3%, continuing a moderate upward trend.

Key Events & Indicators This Week

April 13

China March M2 money supply, year-over-year

Continued focus on Iran situation

April 14

U.S. March PPI, year-over-year (20:30)

April 16

Federal Reserve releases Beige Book on economic conditions (02:00)

U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending April 11 ( million) (20:30)